US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for KY-02 House.
The Washington Sun article reveals that Max Miller’s campaign is heavily indebted to itself, with notable external contributions in 2024 from high-profile Republicans.
GuthrieThe article discusses GOP concerns in Washington about foreign influence campaigns targeting U.S. data centers and critical infrastructure, with specific attention to backing from China.
GuthrieBrett Guthrie (KY-02) is the Kentucky Republican who chairs the House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Health, with involvement in oversight of infrastructure and energy policy.
GuthrieThis article discusses FCC filings related to U.S. drone oversight, noting that a section 1709 list mentions Autel Robotics alongside DJI, but the FCC’s sealed Pentagon letters did not rely on those letters to justify…
The article discusses American opposition to data centers in communities (example Memphis) and explores foreign influence theories, notably claims that China is fueling disinformation to block infrastructure projects.
GuthrieNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBrett Guthrie | 97.2% | 97.0% | 98.0% | 1.0 pts | – | |
| DMegan Wingfield | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.1 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Brett Guthrie, a Republican who has represented Kentucky's 2nd congressional district since 2009 and chairs the House Energy and Commerce Committee, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Megan Wingfield, a mechanic.
Megan Wingfield, a Democrat and mechanic, is her party's nominee for Kentucky's 2nd congressional district in 2026, challenging Republican incumbent Brett Guthrie in the November 3 general election.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Kentucky's 2nd District margin of victory
| Guthrie, 24+ pts | 91.7% | |
| Guthrie, 27+ pts | 79.0% | |
| Guthrie, 30+ pts | 65.5% | |
| Guthrie, 33+ pts | 50.5% | |
| Guthrie, 36+ pts | 34.5% | |
| Guthrie, 39+ pts | 20.5% | |
| Guthrie, 42+ pts | 9.8% | |
| Guthrie, 45+ pts | 4.3% | |
| Guthrie, 48+ pts | 5.8% implied |
KY-02 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 0.5% | |
| Republican 0-10% | 0.5% | |
| Republican 10-20% | 0.6% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 1.7% | |
| Republican 25-30% | 17.6% | |
| Republican 30-35% | 30.0% | |
| Republican 35-40% | 24.0% | |
| Republican 40-45% | 20.0% | |
| Republican 45-50% | 2.6% | |
| Republican 50%+ | – |
Prices which party wins.
Brett Guthrie: Counted · bid 96.9% / ask 97.0% · $1.3K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Brett Guthrie: Counted · bid 97.9% / ask 98.0% · $322 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Brett Guthrie
If the House member sworn in for KY-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
