US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for KY-04 House.
Ed Gallrein, a Trump-backed challenger who defeated incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky’s 4th congressional district race, will attend the Trump rally in Kentucky at Truist Arena, Northern Kentucky University (NKU).
GallreinEd Gallrein is the Republican nominee in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District (KY-04) for the general election.
GallreinEd Gallrein is the Trump-endorsed Republican candidate in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District (KY-04). The race features Gallrein as the heavy favorite in the district, where he faces Democrat Melissa Strange.
GallreinEd Gallrein has announced a campaign for Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District (KY-04). The report covers his candidacy, including background and potential impact on the race.
GallreinEd Gallrein, the Republican nominee for Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District, is challenging incumbent-turned-oppponent in a race shaped by Affordability focus. The seat opened after Rep.
GallreinNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REd Gallrein | 94.5% | 95.1% | 94.5% | 0.7 pts | – | |
| DMelissa Strange | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.0 pts | – |
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Ed Gallrein, a Republican farmer and retired Navy SEAL officer, defeated incumbent Thomas Massie in the 2026 primary and faces Democrat Melissa Strange for Kentucky's 4th congressional district.
Melissa Strange, a Democrat and businesswoman, is her party's nominee for Kentucky's 4th congressional district in 2026, facing Republican Ed Gallrein, who unseated incumbent Thomas Massie in the primary.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Kentucky's 4th District margin of victory
| Gallrein, 3+ pts | 96.2% | |
| Gallrein, 6+ pts | 95.9% | |
| Gallrein, 9+ pts | 94.3% | |
| Gallrein, 12+ pts | 88.2% | |
| Gallrein, 15+ pts | 79.0% | |
| Gallrein, 18+ pts | 66.0% | |
| Gallrein, 21+ pts | 50.5% | |
| Gallrein, 24+ pts | 38.0% | |
| Gallrein, 27+ pts | 23.0% | |
| Gallrein, 30+ pts | 13.0% | |
| Gallrein, 33+ pts | 4.8% | |
| Gallrein, 36+ pts | 6.0% implied | |
| Gallrein, 39+ pts | 4.6% implied | |
| Gallrein, 42+ pts | 4.5% implied |
KY-04 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 1.1% implied | |
| Republican 0-5% | 2.3% | |
| Republican 5-15% | 20.2% | |
| Republican 15-20% | 12.0% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 31.6% | |
| Republican 25-30% | 22.6% | |
| Republican 30-35% | 6.8% | |
| Republican 35-40% | – | |
| Republican 40-45% | 1.1% | |
| Republican 45%+ | 3.4% |
Prices which party wins.
Ed Gallrein: Counted · bid 93.6% / ask 96.6% · $142 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Ed Gallrein: Counted · bid 93.1% / ask 95.8% · $1.2K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Ed Gallrein
If the House member sworn in for KY-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
