US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for KY-05 House.
Hal Rogers (KY-05) is highlighted for his foundational role in establishing the SOAR (Shaping Our Appalachian Region) initiative. At the final day of the summit, Rogers praised Dr.
RogersThe article covers a Mountain Caucus session at the SOAR Summit focused on regional needs and cooperation.
RogersThe SOAR Summit in Kentucky highlighted ongoing regional collaboration and future opportunities. U.S. Rep. Hal Rogers praised Dr.
RogersNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RHal Rogers | 97.1% | 96.5% | 97.4% | 0.8 pts | – | |
| DNed Pillersdorf | 3.8% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.5 pts | – |
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Hal Rogers, a Republican who has represented Kentucky's 5th congressional district since 1981 and is dean of the U.S. House, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Ned Pillersdorf, an attorney.
Ned Pillersdorf, a Democratic attorney who ran for the seat in 1992, is his party's nominee for Kentucky's 5th congressional district in 2026 against Republican incumbent Hal Rogers, the House dean.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Kentucky's 5th District margin of victory
| Rogers, 42+ pts | 89.1% | |
| Rogers, 45+ pts | 79.0% | |
| Rogers, 48+ pts | 69.0% | |
| Rogers, 51+ pts | 60.5% | |
| Rogers, 54+ pts | 49.5% | |
| Rogers, 57+ pts | 39.5% | |
| Rogers, 60+ pts | 29.5% | |
| Rogers, 63+ pts | 19.5% | |
| Rogers, 66+ pts | 10.0% |
KY-05 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 0.3% | |
| Republican 0-30% | 3.8% | |
| Republican 30-40% | 4.5% | |
| Republican 40-45% | – | |
| Republican 45-50% | 18.2% | |
| Republican 50-55% | 21.0% | |
| Republican 55-60% | 25.0% | |
| Republican 60-65% | 17.8% | |
| Republican 65-70% | – | |
| Republican 70%+ | 1.0% implied |
Prices which party wins.
Hal Rogers: Counted · bid 96.1% / ask 97.0% · $733 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Hal Rogers: Counted · bid 96.3% / ask 98.4% · $1.4K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Hal Rogers
If the House member sworn in for KY-05 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
