US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for MA-03 House.
Massachusetts House Rep. Katherine Clark (MA-05) is at the center of a DHS/ICE scrutiny after a Massachusetts delegation pressed Homeland Security for an inspection of an ICE field office.
Representative Lori Trahan (D-MA-03) supports a federal framework to regulate powerful AI models, arguing it would provide guardrails for AI safety.
TrahanLori Trahan, U.S. Representative for Massachusetts' 3rd District, discusses priorities for potential lame-duck action in 2026.
U.S. Rep. Lori Trahan (MA-03) says she is gathering bipartisan support for her federal AI regulations, the FRONTIER Act, and believes it is well-positioned to move in the current Congress.
TrahanLori Trahan (MA-03) discussed the potential outcomes for a lame-duck session in 2026, noting a “huge range” of possibilities depending on the November election.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DLori Trahan | 96.3% | 95.4% | 97.6% | 2.2 pts | – | |
| RGary Grossi | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 0.8 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Gary Grossi, a retired U.S. Army colonel, is the Republican nominee for Massachusetts's 3rd congressional district in 2026, challenging Democratic incumbent Lori Trahan in the November 3 general election.
Lori Trahan, a Democrat who has represented Massachusetts's 3rd congressional district since 2019, is seeking re-election in 2026 against Republican Gary Grossi, a retired U.S. Army colonel.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Massachusetts's 3rd District margin of victory
| Trahan, 16+ pts | 96.9% | |
| Trahan, 19+ pts | 95.9% | |
| Trahan, 22+ pts | 94.2% | |
| Trahan, 25+ pts | 88.5% | |
| Trahan, 28+ pts | 77.5% | |
| Trahan, 31+ pts | 64.0% | |
| Trahan, 34+ pts | 48.5% | |
| Trahan, 37+ pts | 32.5% | |
| Trahan, 40+ pts | 18.0% | |
| Trahan, 43+ pts | 8.8% | |
| Trahan, 46+ pts | 4.5% |
MA-03 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 0.5% | |
| Democrat 0-5% | 0.4% | |
| Democrat 5-15% | 0.2% | |
| Democrat 15-20% | 0.6% | |
| Democrat 20-25% | 4.5% | |
| Democrat 25-30% | 10.5% | |
| Democrat 30-35% | 21.0% | |
| Democrat 35-40% | 22.0% | |
| Democrat 40-45% | 24.0% | |
| Democrat 45%+ | 5.6% |
Prices which party wins.
Lori Trahan: Counted · bid 94.8% / ask 96.0% · $532 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Lori Trahan: Counted · bid 95.5% / ask 99.7% · $361 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Lori Trahan
If the House member sworn in for MA-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
