Top story
Koh, Jones vie for open congressional seat
Daniel Arrigg Koh, 41, the Democratic nominee, his background (born in Andover; son of Howard Koh, former Obama administration health official; mother Claudia Arrigg, an ophthalmologist).
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026
MA-06 House 2026
- Polymarket
- 96.2%
- Kalshi
- 98.1%
- Spread
- 1.9 pts
- 24h
- –
- 7 days
- −0.1
- Updated
- Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage
Live News
Recent coverage for MA-06 House.
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Dan Koh: The article references that Dan Koh, a candidate in Massachusetts’s 6th District congressional race, has a leadership PAC that plans to support Murray and other state legislative Democrats in competitive…
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No story this week names this candidate.
Dan Koh, last 60 days
How to read this chart
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in MethodologyAll outcomes
| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DDan Koh | 96.9% | 96.2% | 98.1% | 1.9 pts | – | |
| RMicah Jones | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.0 pts | – |
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Candidates & Background
Dan Koh
Democratic
Dan Koh, a Democrat who served as deputy director of the White House Office of Intergovernmental Affairs, is his party's nominee for Massachusetts's open 6th district seat in 2026 against Republican Micah Jones.
Micah Jones
Republican
Micah Jones, an attorney and U.S. Army veteran, is the Republican nominee for Massachusetts's open 6th congressional district seat in 2026, facing Democrat Dan Koh, a former White House intergovernmental affairs official.
Margin of victory
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Kalshi4.9K contracts
Massachusetts's 6th District margin of victory
| Koh, 16+ pts | 95.3% | |
| Koh, 19+ pts | 95.2% | |
| Koh, 22+ pts | 92.5% | |
| Koh, 25+ pts | 83.5% | |
| Koh, 28+ pts | 72.5% | |
| Koh, 31+ pts | 46.0% implied | |
| Koh, 34+ pts | 41.0% | |
| Koh, 37+ pts | 23.5% | |
| Koh, 40+ pts | 16.0% | |
| Koh, 43+ pts | 6.9% |
Polymarket$20.4K traded
MA-06 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 0.2% implied | |
| Democrat 0-5% | 0.1% implied | |
| Democrat 5-15% | 0.3% | |
| Democrat 15-20% | 1.6% | |
| Democrat 20-25% | 4.5% | |
| Democrat 25-30% | 13.5% | |
| Democrat 30-35% | 27.0% | |
| Democrat 35-40% | 26.5% | |
| Democrat 40-45% | 16.5% | |
| Democrat 45%+ | 6.2% |
Each venue's market
Polymarket$27.2K traded
Prices which party wins.
Dan Koh: Counted · bid 95.7% / ask 96.6% · $911 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketKalshi1.1K contracts traded
Prices which party wins.
Dan Koh: Counted · bid 96.5% / ask 99.7% · $555 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Dan Koh
If the House member sworn in for MA-06 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Also in Massachusetts
- Massachusetts SenateD98%
- Massachusetts GovernorD95%
- MA-01 HouseD96%
- MA-02 HouseD96%
- MA-03 HouseD96%
- MA-04 HouseD98%
- MA-05 HouseD97%
- MA-07 HouseD98%