US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for MA-09 House.
The article discusses U.S. ties to Bosnia and Herzegovina, focusing on concerns raised by Democratic Congressman Bill Keating (MA-09) about the American Ambassadors' involvement and the affiliated AAFS company.
KeatingU.S. Representative Bill Keating (Mass. 9th District) spoke in Oak Bluffs about the Vineyard’s environmental restoration and water quality, highlighting the SNEP program he founded with Sen. Jack Reed in 2012.
KeatingThe article discusses Democratic Congressman Bill Keating of Massachusetts (MA-09), who, as ranking Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Europe, released a September report titled “Pay for Play in the…
KeatingKeating released a report titled “Pay for Play in the Balkans” (Sept 15) raising concerns about the possible lifting of sanctions on Dodik and US support for AAFS Infrastructure and Energy’s South Interconnector project.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DBill Keating | 95.9% | 95.8% | 96.4% | 0.6 pts | – | |
| RTyler MacAllister | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.8 pts | – |
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Bill Keating, a Democrat who has represented Massachusetts's 9th congressional district since 2013 and previously served as Norfolk County district attorney, seeks reelection in 2026 against Republican Tyler MacAllister.
Tyler MacAllister is the Republican nominee for Massachusetts's 9th congressional district in 2026, challenging Democratic incumbent Bill Keating in the district covering Cape Cod, the South Shore and New Bedford.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Massachusetts's 9th District margin of victory
| Keating, 8+ pts | 96.5% | |
| Keating, 11+ pts | 90.6% implied | |
| Keating, 14+ pts | 91.2% | |
| Keating, 17+ pts | 82.5% | |
| Keating, 20+ pts | 71.5% | |
| Keating, 23+ pts | 57.5% | |
| Keating, 26+ pts | 42.5% | |
| Keating, 29+ pts | 25.0% | |
| Keating, 32+ pts | 13.0% |
MA-09 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 0.1% | |
| Democrat 0-5% | 0.1% | |
| Democrat 5-10% | 0.1% | |
| Democrat 10-15% | 4.5% | |
| Democrat 15-20% | 12.5% | |
| Democrat 20-25% | 22.0% | |
| Democrat 25-30% | 30.5% | |
| Democrat 30-35% | 17.5% | |
| Democrat 35%+ | 5.5% |
Prices which party wins.
Bill Keating: Counted · bid 95.1% / ask 96.4% · $4.2K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Bill Keating: Counted · bid 95.2% / ask 97.5% · $1.1K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Bill Keating
If the House member sworn in for MA-09 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
