US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for MA-04 House.
Representatives Yassamin Ansari (AZ-03) and Claudia Tenney (NY-24) introduced the bipartisan Internet Reach and Access Now (IRAN) Act. The bill aims to strengthen U.S.
Representative Jake Auchincloss (MA-04) unveiled plans to overhaul U.S. clinical trial regulation to speed biomedical innovation.
AuchinclossRepresentative Jake Auchincloss (D-MA) plans to introduce a bill modeled on Australia’s faster early-phase clinical-trial regime. The proposal aims to speed U.S.
AuchinclossRepresentative Jake Auchincloss (D-MA-04) advocates for boosting the U.S. biotech sector rather than pursuing protectionist or China-focused strategies.
AuchinclossJake Auchincloss is the unopposed candidate on the general election ballot for Massachusetts’ 4th U.S. House District (MA-04).
AuchinclossNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJake Auchincloss | 97.6% | 97.2% | 97.8% | 0.5 pts | – | |
| RTom Stalcup | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 0.5 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Jake Auchincloss, a Democrat and Marine Corps officer who has represented Massachusetts's 4th congressional district since 2021, is seeking re-election in 2026 against Republican Tom Stalcup, a physicist and entrepreneur.
Tom Stalcup, a physicist and entrepreneur, is the Republican nominee for Massachusetts's 4th congressional district in 2026, facing Democratic incumbent Jake Auchincloss in the November 3 general election.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Massachusetts's 4th District margin of victory
| Auchincloss, 17+ pts | 95.0% | |
| Auchincloss, 20+ pts | 90.3% | |
| Auchincloss, 23+ pts | 82.0% | |
| Auchincloss, 26+ pts | 69.5% | |
| Auchincloss, 29+ pts | 55.5% | |
| Auchincloss, 32+ pts | 40.5% | |
| Auchincloss, 35+ pts | 26.5% | |
| Auchincloss, 38+ pts | 15.0% | |
| Auchincloss, 41+ pts | 6.8% | |
| Auchincloss, 44+ pts | 4.1% |
MA-04 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 0.1% | |
| Democrat 0-5% | – | |
| Democrat 5-15% | 3.5% | |
| Democrat 15-20% | 2.8% | |
| Democrat 20-25% | 3.7% | |
| Democrat 25-30% | 14.3% | |
| Democrat 30-35% | 28.0% | |
| Democrat 35-40% | 19.8% | |
| Democrat 40-45% | 3.5% | |
| Democrat 45%+ | 5.2% |
Prices which party wins.
Jake Auchincloss: Counted · bid 97.2% / ask 97.3% · $803 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Jake Auchincloss: Counted · bid 96.9% / ask 98.6% · $1.6K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Jake Auchincloss
If the House member sworn in for MA-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
