House · 3 November 2026

MA-02 House 2026

95.8% DJim McGovern leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 95.4%
Kalshi: 97.2%
Spread: 1.7 pts
24h: –
7 days: −0.2
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for MA-02 House.

2 stories this week

Top story

ANCA endorses congressional allies for 2026 midterm elections

Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA-42) – B [...] Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) – A

armenianweekly.com3h ago

Lee

Chu

Yesterday
Shrewsbury Select Board joins chorus asking Amazon to pause drone plan
U.S. Sen. Ed Markey, D-Mass., U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., U.S. Rep. Jim McGovern, D-2nd District, and U.S. Rep.

The Republican (Masslive.com)23h agoMcGovern

Jim McGovern, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DJim McGovern	95.8%		95.4%	97.2%	1.7 pts	–
RRepublican Party	3.9%		4.0%	2.4%	1.6 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ma-02/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-ma-02">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Jim McGovern

Democratic U.S. Representative for Massachusetts's 2nd congressional district (since 2013)

Jim McGovern, a Democrat who has served in the U.S. House since 1997 and represented Massachusetts's 2nd congressional district since 2013, is his party's nominee for re-election in the 2nd district in 2026.

Born 1959 · Worcester, Massachusetts

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi6.9K contracts

Massachusetts's 2nd District margin of victory

McGovern, 20+ pts		95.5% implied
McGovern, 23+ pts		95.6% implied
McGovern, 26+ pts		96.5%
McGovern, 29+ pts		95.5% implied
McGovern, 32+ pts		95.5% implied
McGovern, 35+ pts		95.5% implied
McGovern, 38+ pts		95.4% implied
McGovern, 41+ pts		95.4% implied
McGovern, 44+ pts		97.6%

Source: Kalshi market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$74.9K traded

Prices which party wins.

Jim McGovern: Counted · bid 94.1% / ask 96.8% · $1.5K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi1.2K contracts traded