House · 3 November 2026

MA-08 House 2026

97.4% DStephen Lynch leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 97.4%
Kalshi: 97.4%
Spread: 0.6 pts
24h: –
7 days: +0.2
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Stephen Lynch, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DStephen Lynch	97.4%		97.4%	97.4%	0.1 pts	–
RRobert Burke	1.9%		1.6%	2.3%	0.6 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Robert Burke

Republican

Robert Burke is the Republican nominee for Massachusetts's 8th congressional district in 2026, challenging Democratic incumbent Stephen Lynch, who was re-elected unopposed in 2024, in the November 3 general election.

Full candidate profile →

Stephen Lynch

Democratic U.S. Representative for Massachusetts's 8th congressional district (since 2013)

Stephen Lynch, a Democrat who has served in the U.S. House since 2001 and represented Massachusetts's 8th congressional district since 2013, is seeking re-election in 2026 against Republican Robert Burke.

Born 1955 · Boston, Massachusetts

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi555 contracts

Massachusetts's 8th District margin of victory

Lynch, 28+ pts		95.0%
Lynch, 31+ pts		91.2%
Lynch, 34+ pts		84.5%
Lynch, 37+ pts		76.5%
Lynch, 40+ pts		65.5%
Lynch, 43+ pts		54.0%
Lynch, 46+ pts		37.5%
Lynch, 49+ pts		23.0%
Lynch, 52+ pts		13.0%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$8.9K traded

MA-08 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins		1.9%
Democrat 0-15%		2.6%
Democrat 15-25%		3.2%
Democrat 25-30%		–
Democrat 30-35%		4.8%
Democrat 35-40%		4.3%
Democrat 40-45%		37.0%
Democrat 45-50%		26.5%
Democrat 50-55%		19.5%
Democrat 55%+		2.5%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$27.9K traded

Prices which party wins.

Stephen Lynch: Counted · bid 96.0% / ask 98.7% · $65 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi534 contracts traded