US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for MN-04 House.
Topic: A coalition of prominent House Democrats led by Sen. Ed Markey and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, including Rep.
The article discusses advocacy in Washington for Ireland, highlighting bipartisan action by Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA), Rep. Betty McCollum (D-MN-04), and the author. In December 2023 they criticized a U.S.
McCollumNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DBetty McCollum | 96.4% | 96.4% | 96.4% | 0.0 pts | – | |
| RPaul Wikstrom | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 0.9 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Betty McCollum, a Democratic-Farmer-Labor member who has represented Minnesota's 4th congressional district since 2001 and is dean of the state's delegation, is running for re-election in 2026 against Republican Paul Wikstrom.
Paul Wikstrom, a Republican engineer and 2024 nominee for the Minnesota House, is his party's 2026 nominee in Minnesota's 4th congressional district against Democratic-Farmer-Labor incumbent Betty McCollum.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Minnesota's 4th District margin of victory
| McCollum, 30+ pts | 88.8% | |
| McCollum, 33+ pts | 79.5% | |
| McCollum, 36+ pts | 69.5% | |
| McCollum, 39+ pts | 62.0% | |
| McCollum, 42+ pts | 50.0% | |
| McCollum, 45+ pts | 39.0% | |
| McCollum, 48+ pts | 29.0% | |
| McCollum, 51+ pts | 19.0% | |
| McCollum, 54+ pts | 9.3% |
MN-04 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 0.4% | |
| Democrat 0-20% | 3.5% | |
| Democrat 20-30% | 3.0% | |
| Democrat 30-35% | 2.4% | |
| Democrat 35-40% | 14.6% | |
| Democrat 40-45% | 21.1% | |
| Democrat 45-50% | 26.9% | |
| Democrat 50-55% | 20.7% | |
| Democrat 55-60% | 2.7% | |
| Democrat 60%+ | – |
Prices which party wins.
Betty McCollum: Counted · bid 96.0% / ask 96.9% · $1.6K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Betty McCollum: Counted · bid 95.9% / ask 96.9% · $823 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Betty McCollum
If the House member sworn in for MN-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
