US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for NY-07 House.
Claire Valdez is highlighted as a New Yorker candidate likely to win a seat in the U.S. House, with the article noting she could join fellow left-leaning figures in Congress.
ValdezThe article covers comments by Mamdani (Zohran Mamdani) and NY-13 congressional candidate Avila Chevalier (Darializa Avila Chevalier), clarifying a reported rift over Tisch (likely referring to NYC official Tisch).
The page announces the sixth cohort of the Kriegel Fellowship for Public Service Leaders by ISLG (CUNY Institute for State & Local Governance).
ValdezClaire Valdez is a Democratic Socialist who won the nomination for U.S. Representative for New York's 7th Congressional District (NY-07) in a June primary.
ValdezClaire Valdez is a Democratic Socialist candidate running in New York’s 7th Congressional District (NY-07).
ValdezNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DClaire Valdez | 97.3% | 96.8% | 98.3% | 1.5 pts | – | |
| RMelvin Rivera | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.0 pts | – |
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Claire Valdez, a Democrat and member of the New York State Assembly since 2025, is her party's nominee for the open 7th congressional district seat in 2026 against Republican Melvin Rivera.
Melvin Rivera, a Republican activist and tenant organizer, is his party's nominee for the open 7th congressional district seat in New York in 2026 against Democrat Claire Valdez.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
New York's 7th District margin of victory
| Valdez, 41+ pts | 95.6% | |
| Valdez, 44+ pts | 94.2% | |
| Valdez, 47+ pts | 86.2% | |
| Valdez, 50+ pts | 73.0% | |
| Valdez, 53+ pts | 56.5% | |
| Valdez, 56+ pts | 38.5% | |
| Valdez, 59+ pts | 24.0% | |
| Valdez, 62+ pts | 10.8% | |
| Valdez, 65+ pts | 5.2% |
NY-07 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 0.1% | |
| Democrat 0-30% | 0.1% | |
| Democrat 30-40% | 0.1% | |
| Democrat 40-45% | 10.7% | |
| Democrat 45-50% | 2.7% | |
| Democrat 50-55% | 22.5% | |
| Democrat 55-60% | 29.6% | |
| Democrat 60-65% | 28.6% | |
| Democrat 65-70% | 5.0% | |
| Democrat 70%+ | 8.4% |
Prices which party wins.
Claire Valdez: Counted · bid 95.7% / ask 97.8% · $1.2K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Claire Valdez: Counted · bid 96.8% / ask 99.7% · $685 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Claire Valdez
If the House member sworn in for NY-07 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
