US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for NY-09 House.
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The article reports that Rep. Justin Pearson, a Democrat from Memphis, will remain in the race for Tennessee’s newly drawn 9th Congressional District (TN-09) despite redistricting.
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Democrat Cait Conley and Republican Mike Lawler made their case to voters to represent the Hudson Valley in Congress during their second and final debate for New York’s 17th Congressional District.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DYvette Clarke | 96.9% | 96.8% | 98.0% | 1.2 pts | – | |
| RJoel Anabilah-Azumah | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.4 pts | – |
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Joel Anabilah-Azumah, a bus company owner and perennial candidate, is the Republican nominee for New York's 9th congressional district in 2026, challenging Democratic incumbent Yvette Clarke, who was first elected in 2006.
Yvette Clarke, a Democrat who has served in the U.S. House since 2007 and has represented New York's 9th congressional district since 2013, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican Joel Anabilah-Azumah, a bus company owner.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
New York's 9th District margin of victory
| Clarke, 38+ pts | 96.8% | |
| Clarke, 41+ pts | 94.5% | |
| Clarke, 44+ pts | 90.3% | |
| Clarke, 47+ pts | 81.0% | |
| Clarke, 50+ pts | 67.0% | |
| Clarke, 53+ pts | 48.5% | |
| Clarke, 56+ pts | 30.5% | |
| Clarke, 59+ pts | 15.5% | |
| Clarke, 62+ pts | 5.4% |
NY-09 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 0.1% | |
| Democrat 0-25% | 0.7% | |
| Democrat 25-35% | 0.1% | |
| Democrat 35-40% | 0.2% | |
| Democrat 40-45% | 1.1% | |
| Democrat 45-50% | – | |
| Democrat 50-55% | 18.0% | |
| Democrat 55-60% | 39.5% | |
| Democrat 60-65% | 21.0% | |
| Democrat 65%+ | 1.9% |
Prices which party wins.
Yvette Clarke: Counted · bid 95.9% / ask 97.7% · $9.0K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Yvette Clarke: Counted · bid 96.7% / ask 99.3% · $700 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Yvette Clarke
If the House member sworn in for NY-09 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
