US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for NY-13 House.
The article profiles Vargas, a Lehman College student and double major in political science and philosophy, who earned a prestigious Capitol Hill internship through the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute for spring…
Jomo Williams is not mentioned in the provided Lehman College news item about the Bronx Recovery Corps. The article centers on federal funding secured by Rep.
The Gotham Weekly article discusses NY-13 politics related to NYPD Commissioner Keechant Sewell’s firing controversy. It notes that Mamdani chose not to fire Commissioner Tisch, a decision praised in the piece.
The piece centers on two Democratic Socialist candidates, Darializa Avila Chevalier and Melat Kiros, who are aiming to win House seats and push progressive priorities.
Darializa Avila Chevalier, a Democratic U.S. House candidate for New York’s 13th District, drew fury from Zohran Mamdani’s City Hall staff after her public attacks on NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch following a…
ChevalierDarializa Avila Chevalier has publicly praised NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani amid increasing tensions over calls to fire NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch.
ChevalierUntitled design (2)PRIMARY RESULTS: Darializa Avila Chevalier wins NY-13, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez re-elected to NY-14, Ritchie Torres re-elected to NY-15 [...] FILE: Rep.
Ocasio-CortezChevalierThe article covers comments by Mamdani (Zohran Mamdani) and NY-13 congressional candidate Avila Chevalier (Darializa Avila Chevalier), clarifying a reported rift over Tisch (likely referring to NYC official Tisch).
Darializa Avila Chevalier, a far-left Democratic nominee for NY-13, publicly calls for NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch to resign following an ICE shooting in Marble Hill.
ChevalierNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DDarializa Avila Chevalier | 96.8% | 96.4% | 97.4% | 1.0 pts | – | |
| RJomo Williams | 2.6% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.8 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Darializa Avila Chevalier, a graduate student, community organizer and Democrat who defeated incumbent Adriano Espaillat in the primary, faces Republican Jomo Williams for New York's 13th congressional district in 2026.
Jomo Williams, a Republican businessman who was a nominee for New York City's 7th City Council district in 2025, faces Democrat Darializa Avila Chevalier for New York's 13th congressional district in 2026.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
New York's 13th District margin of victory
| Chevalier, 58+ pts | 95.3% implied | |
| Chevalier, 61+ pts | 94.5% implied | |
| Chevalier, 64+ pts | 95.5% | |
| Chevalier, 67+ pts | 86.7% | |
| Chevalier, 70+ pts | 62.0% | |
| Chevalier, 73+ pts | 44.5% | |
| Chevalier, 76+ pts | 23.5% | |
| Chevalier, 79+ pts | 11.5% | |
| Chevalier, 82+ pts | 5.3% implied |
NY-13 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 0.1% implied | |
| Democrat 0-45% | 1.5% | |
| Democrat 45-55% | 0.1% implied | |
| Democrat 55-60% | 0.7% | |
| Democrat 60-65% | 16.0% | |
| Democrat 65-70% | 33.5% | |
| Democrat 70-75% | 33.0% | |
| Democrat 75-80% | 20.9% | |
| Democrat 80-85% | 2.4% | |
| Democrat 85%+ | 1.0% |
Prices which party wins.
Darializa Avila Chevalier: Counted · bid 95.8% / ask 97.1% · $1.0K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Darializa Avila Chevalier: Counted · bid 96.5% / ask 98.4% · $667 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Darializa Avila Chevalier
If the House member sworn in for NY-13 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
