nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

SC-01 House 2026

71.1% RJenny Costa Honeycutt leads TruthIndex™Lean R
Polymarket
69.5%
Kalshi
72.5%
Spread
3.0 pts
24h
–
7 days
+1.6
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for SC-01 House.

  1. Jenny Costa Honeycutt, Nancy Lacore square off in SC-01 debate days before early voting

    Honeycutt pitched against government spending, advocates economic growth, public safety, and fiscal conservatism; she criticized her opponent as inexperienced and framed the Lowcountry as needing proven leadership.

    wtoc.comHoneycutt
  2. Debate set for SC’s 1st Congressional District candidates

    Debate set for SC-01: Democratic candidate Nancy Lacore and Republican candidate Jenny Costa Honeycutt will debate on Thursday at 7 p.m. for South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District.

    WCSCHoneycutt
  3. Trump to campaign in Clemson, SC for Senator Darline Graham

    The article notes that the most competitive U.S. House race in South Carolina is the 1st Congressional District (SC-01), where there is no incumbent.

    The StateHoneycutt
  4. Trump to hold midterm rally in Clemson to boost GOP midterm turnout

    The article reports that former President Donald Trump held a midterm rally-style phone event to bolster GOP turnout in South Carolina.

    South Carolina Public RadioHoneycutt

Jenny Costa Honeycutt, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RJenny Costa Honeycutt 71.1% 69.5% 72.5% 3.0 pts –
DNancy Lacore 28.9% 30.5% 27.5% 3.0 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Jenny Costa Honeycutt

Republican Member of the Charleston County Council

Jenny Costa Honeycutt, a Republican Charleston County councilor, is the Republican nominee for South Carolina's open 1st congressional district seat in 2026, facing Democrat Nancy Lacore, a former chief of the U.S. Navy Reserve.

Nancy Lacore

Nancy Lacore

Democratic

Nancy Lacore, a Democrat and retired U.S. Navy vice admiral who served as Chief of Navy Reserve from 2024 to 2025, faces Republican Jenny Costa Honeycutt for South Carolina's open 1st congressional district seat in 2026.

Albany, New York

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi3.0K contracts

South Carolina's 1st District margin of victory

Honeycutt, 1+ pts
69.0%
Honeycutt, 4+ pts
57.0%
Honeycutt, 7+ pts
41.5%
Honeycutt, 10+ pts
28.0%
Honeycutt, 13+ pts
21.5%
Honeycutt, 16+ pts
13.9%
Honeycutt, 19+ pts
8.1%
Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi499 contracts

South Carolina's 1st District margin of victory

Lacore, 2+ pts
21.0%
Lacore, 5+ pts
12.3%
Lacore, 8+ pts
7.7%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$16.8K traded

SC-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 18%+
5.4%
Republican 15-18%
4.1%
Republican 12-15%
–
Republican 9-12%
5.1%
Republican 6-9%
19.5%
Republican 3-6%
17.5%
Republican 0-3%
17.1%
Democrat 0-3%
13.5%
Democrat 3-6%
14.0%
Democrat 6%+
11.6%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$84.3K traded

Prices which party wins.

Jenny Costa Honeycutt: Counted · bid 69.0% / ask 70.0% · $50.8K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi187.0K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Jenny Costa Honeycutt: Counted · bid 72.0% / ask 73.0% · $61.2K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Jenny Costa Honeycutt

If the House member sworn in for SC-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in South Carolina

  1. South Carolina SenateR85%
  2. South Carolina GovernorR95%
  3. SC-02 HouseR88%
  4. SC-03 HouseR97%
  5. SC-04 HouseR96%
  6. SC-05 HouseR93%
  7. SC-06 HouseD97%
  8. SC-07 HouseR95%