nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

SC-05 House 2026

92.7% RWes Climer leads TruthIndex™Safe R
Polymarket
92.5%
Kalshi
93.1%
Spread
0.6 pts
24h
–
7 days
+1.2
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for SC-05 House.

  1. Congressional Nominee Mallory Dittmer to Co-Host Rally the Vote in Rock Hill Oct 18th

    Mallory Dittmer, the Democratic nominee for South Carolina’s 5th Congressional District (SC-05), will co-host Rally the Vote in Rock Hill on Sunday, Oct. 18, 5:30–7:00 pm at Fountain Park (300 E. Main St.).

    Fort Mill SunDittmerAlso in wrhi.com

Wes Climer, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RWes Climer 92.7% 92.5% 93.1% 0.6 pts –
DMallory Dittmer 7.0% 7.0% 7.3% 0.3 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Mallory Dittmer

Democratic

Mallory Dittmer, a branding consultant, is the Democratic nominee for South Carolina's open 5th congressional district seat in 2026, facing Republican state senator Wes Climer.

Wes Climer

Republican Member of the South Carolina Senate from the 15th district (since 2016)

Wes Climer, a Republican who has represented the 15th district in the South Carolina Senate since 2016, is his party's nominee for South Carolina's open 5th congressional district seat in 2026 against Democrat Mallory Dittmer.

Born 1982

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi1.5K contracts

South Carolina's 5th District margin of victory

Climer, 1+ pts
91.6%
Climer, 3+ pts
88.1%
Climer, 6+ pts
79.0%
Climer, 9+ pts
65.5%
Climer, 12+ pts
52.0%
Climer, 15+ pts
36.0%
Climer, 18+ pts
23.0%
Climer, 21+ pts
12.5%
Climer, 24+ pts
5.7%
Climer, 27+ pts
6.9%
implied
Climer, 30+ pts
5.3%
implied
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$26.2K traded

SC-05 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins
3.1%
Republican 0-5%
2.9%
Republican 5-10%
24.1%
Republican 10-15%
24.5%
Republican 15-20%
25.5%
Republican 20-25%
18.5%
Republican 25-30%
3.5%
Republican 30-35%
2.5%
Republican 35%+
0.4%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$11.2K traded

Prices which party wins.

Wes Climer: Counted · bid 91.0% / ask 94.0% · $3.5K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi14.6K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Wes Climer: Counted · bid 92.9% / ask 93.2% · $1.5K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Wes Climer

If the House member sworn in for SC-05 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in South Carolina

  1. South Carolina SenateR85%
  2. South Carolina GovernorR95%
  3. SC-01 HouseR71%
  4. SC-02 HouseR88%
  5. SC-03 HouseR97%
  6. SC-04 HouseR96%
  7. SC-06 HouseD97%
  8. SC-07 HouseR95%