nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

SC-02 House 2026

87.7% RJoe Wilson leads TruthIndex™Likely R
Polymarket
87.5%
Kalshi
88.5%
Spread
1.0 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.2
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for SC-02 House.

  1. ANCA Endorses Congressional Allies; Grades Members of Congress on Pro-Armenian Priorities

    Rep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C

    asbarez.comMcBathBeattyHarderMorelleJoyceNeguseHayesSolisConawayReschenthalerBilirakisThompsonCisnerosWhitesidesLatimerPalmerAmoLucasBurlisonValadaoRouzerJoyceStrongWestermanPettersenMastJackBoyleShermanKnottWagnerMejiaAdamsMcDowellBeanCorreaUnderwoodCastorJacksonWilsonHimesJeffriesDavisTranBentzKurdian
  2. Lawmakers Invoke Lindsey Graham as They Demand Trump Revoke Russia Diesel Deal

    The Newsweek article discusses a bipartisan letter urging President Trump to revoke a Russia diesel deal, led by Rep. Jim Costa (D-CA) and signed by Republicans including Rep.

    NewsweekWilsonCosta
  3. Bipartisan House group urges Trump to enforce Russia sanctions, scrap diesel deal - Live Updates

    Topic: Emanuel Cleaver (Missouri) and his stance within the House, particularly in relation to leadership dynamics and support for long-tenured members.

    PoliticoWilsonCostaCleaverShermanFoster
  4. 5 GOP House members join letter urging Trump to cancel Russia diesel deal, up sanctions

    A bipartisan group of House lawmakers, including Rep. Joe Wilson (SC-02), joined 17 Democrats in urging Donald Trump to revoke a Russia diesel deal, expressing particular concern about the arrangement.

    The HillWilson

Joe Wilson, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RJoe Wilson 87.7% 87.5% 88.5% 1.0 pts –
DZyon Khalifa 11.8% 11.8% 11.5% 0.3 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Joe Wilson

Joe Wilson

Republican U.S. Representative for South Carolina's 2nd congressional district (since 2001)

Joe Wilson, a Republican who has represented South Carolina's 2nd congressional district in the U.S. House since 2001, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Zyon Khalifa.

Born 1947 · Charleston, South Carolina

Zyon Khalifa

Democratic

Zyon Khalifa, an attorney and Air Force veteran, is the Democratic nominee for South Carolina's 2nd congressional district in 2026, facing Republican incumbent Joe Wilson.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi504 contracts

South Carolina's 2nd District margin of victory

Wilson, 1+ pts
86.3%
Wilson, 4+ pts
76.5%
Wilson, 7+ pts
63.5%
Wilson, 10+ pts
48.5%
Wilson, 13+ pts
34.5%
Wilson, 16+ pts
21.5%
Wilson, 19+ pts
11.5%
Wilson, 22+ pts
5.5%
Wilson, 25+ pts
3.5%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$23.4K traded

SC-02 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 25%+
2.5%
Republican 20-25%
4.1%
Republican 15-20%
17.8%
Republican 10-15%
32.3%
Republican 5-10%
27.2%
Republican 0-5%
13.5%
Democrat 0-5%
3.9%
Democrat 5%+
1.3%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$49.0K traded

Prices which party wins.

Joe Wilson: Counted · bid 87.0% / ask 88.0% · $9.3K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi18.1K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Joe Wilson: Counted · bid 88.0% / ask 89.0% · $2.4K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Joe Wilson

If the House member sworn in for SC-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in South Carolina

  1. South Carolina SenateR85%
  2. South Carolina GovernorR95%
  3. SC-01 HouseR71%
  4. SC-03 HouseR97%
  5. SC-04 HouseR96%
  6. SC-05 HouseR93%
  7. SC-06 HouseD97%
  8. SC-07 HouseR95%