US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for AZ-07 House.
The POLITICO piece “Flock lobbies up” highlights lobbying activity in politics, with a note that the Arizona Green Party has endorsed or supported candidates, including Greg Stanton for re-election to Congress.
Adelita Grijalva (AZ-07) is challenging a proposed $63 million expansion of a Border Patrol checkpoint along Interstate 19 in southern Arizona.
GrijalvaRepresentative Adelita Grijalva (AZ-07) visited Douglas to discuss TRIO programs and border-related issues. The event, reported by the Office of Rep.
GrijalvaThe Direct CARE Opportunity Act of 2026 was introduced on October 1 by House Education and Workforce Ranking Member Bobby Scott (D-VA) along with Rep. Adelita Grijalva (D-AZ) and Rep. Susie Lee (D-NV).
Rep. Adelita Grijalva (AZ-07) is hosting a roundtable in Tucson on Oct 16, 2026, to push for affordable care and paid family/medical leave.
GrijalvaNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAdelita Grijalva | 98.7% | 99.0% | 98.5% | 0.5 pts | – | |
| RDaniel Butierez | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.5 pts | – |
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Adelita Grijalva, a Democrat who won a 2025 special election for Arizona's 7th congressional district after the death of her father, Raúl Grijalva, seeks a full term in 2026 against Republican Daniel Butierez.
Daniel Butierez, a Republican painting contractor who was his party's nominee for Arizona's 7th congressional district in 2024 and 2025, faces Democratic incumbent Adelita Grijalva for the seat again in 2026.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Arizona's 7th District margin of victory
| Grijalva, 22+ pts | 95.6% | |
| Grijalva, 25+ pts | 93.0% implied | |
| Grijalva, 28+ pts | 93.9% | |
| Grijalva, 31+ pts | 88.1% | |
| Grijalva, 32+ pts | 84.5% | |
| Grijalva, 34+ pts | 77.0% | |
| Grijalva, 37+ pts | 45.0% implied | |
| Grijalva, 40+ pts | 34.0% implied | |
| Grijalva, 43+ pts | 21.0% | |
| Grijalva, 46+ pts | 13.0% |
AZ-07 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 0.1% | |
| Democrat 0-10% | 0.3% | |
| Democrat 10-20% | 0.1% | |
| Democrat 20-25% | 3.5% | |
| Democrat 25-30% | 5.5% | |
| Democrat 30-35% | 26.0% | |
| Democrat 35-40% | 32.5% | |
| Democrat 40-45% | 21.0% | |
| Democrat 45-50% | – | |
| Democrat 50%+ | 0.3% |
Prices which party wins.
Adelita Grijalva: Counted · bid 98.0% / ask 99.9% · $1.0K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Adelita Grijalva: Counted · bid 97.2% / ask 99.8% · $1.5K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Adelita Grijalva
If the House member sworn in for AZ-07 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
