US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for Pennsylvania Governor.
Pennsylvania Treasurer and gubernatorial candidate Stacy Garrity, speaks during a town hall inside the Cultural Hall at Willow Valley Communities on Thursday, Oct. 15, 2026.
GarrityA white man in a suit speaks to a crowd of people inside of a large room.
ShapiroPENNSYLVANIA: With the state's gubernatorial election rapidly nearing, voters on Nov. 3 will face a choice between Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro and his Republican opponent, state Treasurer Stacy Garrity.
Whether serving shareholders, soldiers, pension beneficiaries, taxpayers or citizens, leadership begins with understanding that we have temporarily been entrusted with something belonging to someone else.
GarrityPennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro said on Thursday the state had secured more than $4 billion in life sciences and private-sector investment commitments
ShapiroShapiroPennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro delivers a defiant message aimed at Donald Trump, declaring that Americans will not allow the president to take away their hope and optimism.
ShapiroStacy Garrity, a Republican candidate for Pennsylvania governor, emphasizes her Bradford County roots as the backbone of her campaign.
GarrityPennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is pushing stricter data-center permitting rules, insisting developers must fund their own power needs, protect air and water, and win local community support before state review.
The article compares Governor Josh Shapiro (D) and Republican Stacy Garrity (state Treasurer) on taxes, spending, and other policy ideas ahead of Pennsylvania’s governor election.
Garrity advocates cooperation between Pennsylvanians, public officials, and ICE, and has not definitively stated how she would handle ICE detention centers.
Stacy Garrity is the Republican candidate for Pennsylvania governor in the referenced voter guide. She has served as state treasurer since 2021 and was reelected in 2024.
GarritySummary for query: Josh Shapiro and Pennsylvania governorship on immigration
ShapiroPennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro is advancing public health with a focus on vaccines.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJosh Shapiro | 97.8% | 97.8% | 97.8% | 0.0 pts | – | |
| RStacy Garrity | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.3 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Josh Shapiro, a Democrat who was Pennsylvania attorney general from 2017 to 2023 and has been governor since 2023, is seeking a second term against Republican Stacy Garrity.
Stacy Garrity, a Republican Army Reserve veteran who has been Pennsylvania treasurer since 2021, is her party's 2026 nominee for governor of Pennsylvania.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Josh Shapiro margin of victory
| Shapiro, 4+ pts | 97.7% | |
| Shapiro, 7+ pts | 97.7% | |
| Shapiro, 10+ pts | 97.5% | |
| Shapiro, 13+ pts | 97.0% | |
| Shapiro, 16+ pts | 94.1% | |
| Shapiro, 19+ pts | 86.0% | |
| Shapiro, 22+ pts | 66.5% | |
| Shapiro, 25+ pts | 46.0% | |
| Shapiro, 28+ pts | 26.5% | |
| Shapiro, 31+ pts | 8.8% | |
| Shapiro, 34+ pts | 4.0% |
Pennsylvania Governor Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 0.3% | |
| Democrat 0-5% | 2.7% | |
| Democrat 5-10% | 2.1% | |
| Democrat 10-15% | 3.6% | |
| Democrat 15-20% | 17.5% | |
| Democrat 20-25% | 21.0% | |
| Democrat 25-30% | 29.5% | |
| Democrat 30%+ | 24.5% |
Prices which party wins.
Josh Shapiro: Counted · bid 97.2% / ask 98.4% · $4.5K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Josh Shapiro: Counted · bid 97.8% / ask 97.9% · $60.7K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Josh Shapiro
If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Pennsylvania pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
