US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for PA-09 House.
The Opinion piece by Star Parker discusses online fraud and argues for government oversight, suggesting legislative action such as the Safeguarding Consumers from Advertising Misconduct Act. The act, introduced by Rep.
MeuserDan Meuser (PA-09) is highlighted in a letter criticizing Medicare and Medicaid changes tied to the so-called “One Beautiful Bill” supported by President Trump and a Republican Congress.
MeuserThe article discusses a proposed federal bill, the Safeguarding Consumers from Advertising Misconduct Act, introduced by Rep. Lou Correa (D-CA) and Rep. Dan Meuse (typo: Dan Meuser, PA-09) in the House, along with Sens.
The article discusses Congress’s proposed Safeguarding Consumers from Advertising Misconduct Act, introduced by U.S. Representatives Lou Correa (CA) and Dan Meuser (PA-09) and Senators Ruben Gallego and Bernie Moreno.
MeuserNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RDan Meuser | 95.7% | 96.4% | 95.2% | 1.2 pts | – | |
| DRachel Wallace | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 0.6 pts | – |
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Dan Meuser, a Republican businessman and former Pennsylvania secretary of revenue who has represented the state's 9th congressional district since 2019, faces Democrat Rachel Wallace in his 2026 bid for reelection.
Rachel Wallace, a Democrat and former chief of staff in the Office of Management and Budget, is the party's nominee for Pennsylvania's 9th congressional district in 2026 against Republican incumbent Dan Meuser.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Pennsylvania's 9th District margin of victory
| Meuser, 20+ pts | 91.0% | |
| Meuser, 23+ pts | 82.5% | |
| Meuser, 26+ pts | 72.5% | |
| Meuser, 29+ pts | 60.0% | |
| Meuser, 32+ pts | 44.5% | |
| Meuser, 35+ pts | 30.5% | |
| Meuser, 38+ pts | 18.5% | |
| Meuser, 41+ pts | 9.7% | |
| Meuser, 44+ pts | 4.5% |
PA-09 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 0.4% | |
| Republican 0-10% | 6.3% | |
| Republican 10-20% | 4.9% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 19.7% | |
| Republican 25-30% | 32.5% | |
| Republican 30-35% | 17.0% | |
| Republican 35-40% | 5.2% | |
| Republican 40-45% | 2.6% | |
| Republican 45-50% | 2.1% | |
| Republican 50%+ | 3.6% |
Prices which party wins.
Dan Meuser: Counted · bid 95.4% / ask 97.5% · $709 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Dan Meuser: Counted · bid 94.0% / ask 96.4% · $1.2K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Dan Meuser
If the House member sworn in for PA-09 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
