US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for PA-01 House.
Shapiro’s New Path PAC will allow him to fundraise and contribute directly to the four Democratic candidates he’s supporting: Bob Harvie in Pennsylvania’s 1st, Bob Brooks in Pennsylvania’s 7th, Paige Cognetti in…
“He used to be independent. But now it seems like he’s in lockstep with Donald Trump. It really bothers me,” she says, adding, “Congressman Fitzpatrick is not for us anymore.”
From Philly and the Pa. suburbs to South Jersey and Delaware, what would you like WHYY News to cover? Let us know!
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, who owns Starlink, clarified in a post to the social platform X that Starshield is managed by the U.S.
FitzpatrickOn Sept. 3, Rep. Doris Matsui (D-CA-7) and Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-01) reintroduced the 988 Implementation Act with a bipartisan group of House members, and the release lists Connections Health Solutions among the…
FitzpatrickWASHINGTON – Today, Congressman Jim Costa (CA-21), a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, joined Co-Chairs of the Congressional Ukraine Caucus Representatives Mike Quigley (IL-05), Marcy Kaptur (OH-09), Brian…
PA-01: Election Day Is 3 Weeks Away. How Close Is the Fitzpatrick-Harvie Race. “According to the most recent Cook Political Report rating, updated Oct.
FitzpatrickNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBrian Fitzpatrick | 63.6% | 62.5% | 64.5% | 2.0 pts | – | |
| DBob Harvie | 37.5% | 38.5% | 36.5% | 2.0 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Bob Harvie, a Democrat who chairs the Bucks County Commission, is the Democratic nominee for Pennsylvania's 1st congressional district in 2026, facing Republican incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick.
Brian Fitzpatrick, a Republican and former FBI agent who has served in the U.S. House since 2017 and represented Pennsylvania's 1st congressional district since 2019, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Bob Harvie.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Pennsylvania's 1st District margin of victory
| Fitzpatrick, 2+ pts | 53.5% | |
| Fitzpatrick, 5+ pts | 34.5% | |
| Fitzpatrick, 8+ pts | 25.5% | |
| Fitzpatrick, 11+ pts | 15.5% | |
| Fitzpatrick, 14+ pts | 8.1% |
Pennsylvania's 1st District margin of victory
| Harvie, 1+ pts | 35.5% | |
| Harvie, 4+ pts | 23.5% | |
| Harvie, 7+ pts | 11.2% | |
| Harvie, 10+ pts | 9.4% |
PA-01 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican 12%+ | 3.6% | |
| Republican 9-12% | 3.0% | |
| Republican 6-9% | 4.6% | |
| Republican 3-6% | – | |
| Republican 0-3% | – | |
| Democrat 0-3% | 21.6% | |
| Democrat 3-6% | 19.0% | |
| Democrat 6-9% | 5.7% | |
| Democrat 9-12% | 3.0% | |
| Democrat 12%+ | 2.7% |
Prices which party wins.
Brian Fitzpatrick: Counted · bid 62.0% / ask 63.0% · $62.8K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Brian Fitzpatrick: Counted · bid 64.0% / ask 65.0% · $75.7K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Brian Fitzpatrick
If the House member sworn in for PA-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
