nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

PA-10 House 2026

80.5% DJanelle Stelson leads TruthIndex™Likely D
Polymarket
80.5%
Kalshi
80.5%
Spread
0.0 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.5
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for PA-10 House.

  1. Watch the PA-10 Debate: Scott Perry v. Janelle Stelson

    PoliticsPA presents coverage of the PA-10 congressional debate between incumbent Rep. Scott Perry and challenger Janelle Stelson.

    PoliticsPAStelson
  2. Perry and Stelson trade insults and accusations in fiery 10th District debate

    Janelle Stelson, the Democratic challenger in Pennsylvania’s 10th District, faced off against incumbent Republican Rep. Scott Perry in a fiery ABC27 televised debate.

    Philadelphia InquirerStelson
  3. Perry and Stelson Face Off in 2024 Rematch: IJR News

    Janelle Stelson, the Democratic challenger in Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District, faced Republican incumbent Scott Perry in a high-profile 2024 rematch.

    faithtap.comStelson
  4. Fact-checking the Congressional debate between Scott Perry and Janelle Stelson

    The Fox43 piece covers the 10th Congressional District debate in Pennsylvania between Republican Rep. Scott Perry and Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson.

    WPMTStelson

Janelle Stelson, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DJanelle Stelson 80.5% 80.5% 80.5% 0.0 pts –
RScott Perry 19.5% 19.5% 19.5% 0.0 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Janelle Stelson

Democratic

Janelle Stelson, a Democrat and former WGAL-TV news anchor who narrowly lost to Scott Perry in 2024, is again her party's nominee for Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district in 2026 against the Republican incumbent.

Born 1960 · Fairbanks, Alaska
Scott Perry

Scott Perry

Republican U.S. Representative for Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district (since 2013)

Scott Perry, a Republican and retired Army National Guard brigadier general who has represented Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district since 2013, faces Democrat Janelle Stelson in a 2026 rematch of their 2024 race.

Born 1962 · San Diego, California

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi1.5K contracts

Pennsylvania's 10th District margin of victory

Perry, 2+ pts
12.2%
Perry, 5+ pts
6.6%
Perry, 8+ pts
4.6%
Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi1.8K contracts

Pennsylvania's 10th District margin of victory

Stelson, 1+ pts
76.5%
Stelson, 4+ pts
66.5%
Stelson, 7+ pts
52.0%
Stelson, 10+ pts
37.0%
Stelson, 13+ pts
23.5%
Stelson, 16+ pts
14.0%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$16.2K traded

PA-10 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 6%+
4.8%
Republican 3-6%
3.1%
Republican 0-3%
13.2%
Democrat 0-3%
6.5%
Democrat 3-6%
19.4%
Democrat 6-9%
21.9%
Democrat 9-12%
13.1%
Democrat 12-15%
14.9%
Democrat 15-18%
4.5%
Democrat 18%+
0.4%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$12.7K traded

Prices which party wins.

Janelle Stelson: Counted · bid 80.0% / ask 81.0% · $7.1K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi37.9K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Janelle Stelson: Counted · bid 80.0% / ask 81.0% · $62.0K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Janelle Stelson

If the House member sworn in for PA-10 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Pennsylvania

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  4. PA-03 HouseD98%
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  6. PA-05 HouseD98%
  7. PA-06 HouseD97%
  8. PA-07 HouseD86%