House · 3 November 2026

PA-08 House 2026

72.8% DPaige Cognetti leads TruthIndex™Lean D

Polymarket: 72.0%
Kalshi: 73.5%
Spread: 2.0 pts
24h: –
7 days: +0.3
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Paige Cognetti, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DPaige Cognetti	72.8%		72.0%	73.5%	1.5 pts	–
RRob Bresnahan	27.4%		28.5%	26.5%	2.0 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Paige Cognetti

Democratic Mayor of Scranton (since 2020)

Paige Cognetti, a Democrat who has served as mayor of Scranton since 2020, is her party's nominee for Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district in 2026 against Republican incumbent Rob Bresnahan.

Born 1980 · Eugene, Oregon

Full candidate profile →

Rob Bresnahan

Republican U.S. Representative for Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district (since 2025)

Rob Bresnahan, a Republican businessman who has represented Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district since 2025, faces Democrat Paige Cognetti, the mayor of Scranton, in his 2026 bid for reelection.

Born 1990 · Kingston, Pennsylvania

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi8.9K contracts

Pennsylvania's 8th District margin of victory

Bresnahan, 1+ pts		21.5%
Bresnahan, 4+ pts		12.3%
Bresnahan, 7+ pts		5.5%
Bresnahan, 10+ pts		7.1% implied

Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi2.1K contracts

Pennsylvania's 8th District margin of victory

Cognetti, 2+ pts		68.0%
Cognetti, 5+ pts		48.5%
Cognetti, 8+ pts		34.5%
Cognetti, 11+ pts		22.5%
Cognetti, 14+ pts		12.5%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$15.1K traded

PA-08 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 12%+		0.1%
Republican 9-12%		4.4%
Republican 6-9%		5.8%
Republican 3-6%		5.3%
Republican 0-3%		14.5%
Democrat 0-3%		–
Democrat 3-6%		17.3%
Democrat 6-9%		12.0%
Democrat 9-12%		7.5%
Democrat 12%+		5.5%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$20.7K traded

Prices which party wins.

Paige Cognetti: Counted · bid 71.0% / ask 73.0% · $58.0K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi182.6K contracts traded