US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for PA-11 House.
The article profiles Soliman, a Lancaster filmmaker advocating for the Dream Act and immigrant rights. It notes momentum in Congress, with 217 House members signing a discharge petition to force a vote.
SmuckerA reader argues that it’s time to replace U.S. Representative Lloyd Smucker (PA-11) in Congress, expressing dissatisfaction with his performance and urging voters to choose a different candidate.
SmuckerThe article from Armenian Directory & News reports that the ANCA (American n) endorses Congressional allies and grades members of Congress on their pro-Armenian stance.
Candidatura en Pensilvania (PA-02): Jessica Arriaga, puertorriqueña nacida en North Philadelphia, es la rival republicana de Boyle en las elecciones de medio término.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RLloyd Smucker | 95.0% | 95.0% | 95.2% | 0.2 pts | – | |
| DNancy Mannion | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 0.4 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Lloyd Smucker, a Republican who has represented Pennsylvania's 11th congressional district and its predecessor since 2017, faces Democrat Nancy Mannion, a registered nurse, in his 2026 bid for reelection.
Nancy Mannion, a Democrat and registered nurse, is the party's nominee for Pennsylvania's 11th congressional district in 2026, challenging Republican incumbent Lloyd Smucker in the November 3 general election.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Pennsylvania's 11th District margin of victory
| Smucker, 7+ pts | 88.9% | |
| Smucker, 10+ pts | 79.5% | |
| Smucker, 13+ pts | 67.5% | |
| Smucker, 16+ pts | 53.5% | |
| Smucker, 19+ pts | 39.5% | |
| Smucker, 22+ pts | 27.5% | |
| Smucker, 25+ pts | 17.5% | |
| Smucker, 28+ pts | 7.9% | |
| Smucker, 31+ pts | 7.7% implied |
PA-11 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 5.2% | |
| Republican 0-5% | 4.7% | |
| Republican 5-10% | 20.0% | |
| Republican 10-15% | 31.5% | |
| Republican 15-20% | 29.5% | |
| Republican 20-25% | – | |
| Republican 25-30% | 4.9% | |
| Republican 30-35% | 2.5% | |
| Republican 35%+ | 3.3% |
Prices which party wins.
Lloyd Smucker: Counted · bid 94.6% / ask 95.3% · $9.3K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Lloyd Smucker: Counted · bid 94.2% / ask 96.2% · $2.1K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Lloyd Smucker
If the House member sworn in for PA-11 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
