Top story
Scott Perry and Janelle Stelson Debate Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District
The Spark covers the Pennsylvania 10th Congressional District race between Republican Rep. Scott Perry and Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson.
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026
PA-16 House 2026
- Polymarket
- 95.5%
- Kalshi
- 94.6%
- Spread
- 0.9 pts
- 24h
- –
- 7 days
- +1.2
- Updated
- Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage
Live News
Recent coverage for PA-16 House.
-
Democrats hope to dislodge Trump loyalist Scott Perry in Pennsylvania
The AP article examines Pennsylvania’s 10th/possibly evolving PA-16 race where Rep.
-
2 newcomers battling for House seat in 16th House District in November
The provided page is about the Delaware 16th House District race in the November election, featuring two candidates: Democrat Pamela Salaam and Republican Enala A. Mwashitete.
-
How Sha Na Na could help determine the House majority
The Roll Call podcast discusses Pennsylvania political dynamics as races heat up, with a focus on swing districts and how various forces: including anti-corruption messaging and high-profile campaign events: are shaping…
-
State Rep. Stewart faces challenge from Wagner in 51st District race
The Day reports that state Rep. Diana variants? (Note: The title indicates: "State Rep. Stewart faces challenge from Wagner in 51st District race | The Day").
No story this week names this candidate.
Mike Kelly, last 60 days
How to read this chart
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in MethodologyAll outcomes
| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RMike Kelly | 95.4% | 95.5% | 94.6% | 0.9 pts | – | |
| DJustin Wagner | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 0.1 pts | – |
Share this race
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
Post on X
X opens with your text; you can edit it there before posting.
Embed the live card
Candidates & Background
Justin Wagner
Democratic
Justin Wagner, a Democrat and engineer, is the Democratic nominee for Pennsylvania's 16th congressional district in 2026, challenging Republican incumbent Mike Kelly in the November general election.
Mike Kelly
Republican U.S. Representative for Pennsylvania's 16th congressional district (since 2019)
Mike Kelly, a Republican businessman who has served in the U.S. House since 2011 and represents Pennsylvania's 16th congressional district, is seeking re-election in 2026 against Democrat Justin Wagner, an engineer.
Margin of victory
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Kalshi1.1K contracts
Pennsylvania's 16th District margin of victory
| Kelly, 3+ pts | 88.1% | |
| Kelly, 6+ pts | 78.5% | |
| Kelly, 9+ pts | 65.5% | |
| Kelly, 12+ pts | 51.5% | |
| Kelly, 15+ pts | 36.5% | |
| Kelly, 18+ pts | 23.5% | |
| Kelly, 21+ pts | 13.8% | |
| Kelly, 24+ pts | 7.0% | |
| Kelly, 27+ pts | 4.2% | |
| Kelly, 30+ pts | 6.6% implied | |
| Kelly, 33+ pts | 5.0% implied |
Polymarket$19.5K traded
PA-16 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 3.4% | |
| Republican 0-5% | 3.7% | |
| Republican 5-10% | 24.0% | |
| Republican 10-15% | 21.0% | |
| Republican 15-20% | 23.5% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 13.2% | |
| Republican 25-30% | 6.3% | |
| Republican 30-35% | 0.8% | |
| Republican 35%+ | 4.3% |
Each venue's market
Polymarket$75.6K traded
Prices which party wins.
Mike Kelly: Counted · bid 94.6% / ask 96.4% · $13.5K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketKalshi12.2K contracts traded
Prices which party wins.
Mike Kelly: Counted · bid 94.0% / ask 95.2% · $1.8K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Mike Kelly
If the House member sworn in for PA-16 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Also in Pennsylvania
- Pennsylvania GovernorD98%
- PA-01 HouseR64%
- PA-02 HouseD96%
- PA-03 HouseD98%
- PA-04 HouseD96%
- PA-05 HouseD98%
- PA-06 HouseD97%
- PA-07 HouseD86%