US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for PA-07 House.
Candidatura en Pensilvania (PA-02): Jessica Arriaga, puertorriqueña nacida en North Philadelphia, es la rival republicana de Boyle en las elecciones de medio término.
The article covers an event in Bethlehem marking 100 days until the midterm elections, featuring U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Congressional Candidate Bob Brooks of Pennsylvania’s 7th District (PA-07).
Eric Flores is the Republican candidate challenging incumbent Democrat Vicente Gonzalez in Texas’s 34th Congressional District (TX-34).
The piece discusses Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (PA-07) facing what may be the toughest election of his 14-year career as Democratic challenger Bob Brooks aims to unseat him.
Bob Brooks, running as a working-class populist in Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District (PA-07), is gaining traction among Democrats and undecided voters as his campaign emphasizes a working-class background (e.g.,…
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DBob Brooks | 86.4% | 85.5% | 86.5% | 1.0 pts | – | |
| RRyan Mackenzie | 12.7% | 13.5% | 12.5% | 1.0 pts | – |
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Bob Brooks, a Democrat and president of the Pennsylvania Professional Firefighters Association, is his party's nominee for Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district in 2026 against Republican incumbent Ryan Mackenzie.
Ryan Mackenzie, a Republican who has represented Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district since 2025 after serving in the state House from 2012 to 2024, faces Democrat Bob Brooks in his 2026 bid for reelection.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Pennsylvania's 7th District margin of victory
| Mackenzie, 3+ pts | 9.3% | |
| Mackenzie, 6+ pts | 6.7% | |
| Mackenzie, 9+ pts | 3.7% |
Pennsylvania's 7th District margin of victory
| Brooks, 1+ pts | 78.5% | |
| Brooks, 3+ pts | 70.5% | |
| Brooks, 6+ pts | 56.5% | |
| Brooks, 9+ pts | 41.5% | |
| Brooks, 12+ pts | 27.5% | |
| Brooks, 15+ pts | 16.5% | |
| Brooks, 18+ pts | 8.0% |
PA-07 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican 6%+ | 2.7% | |
| Republican 3-6% | 5.1% | |
| Republican 0-3% | 14.5% | |
| Democrat 0-3% | 14.0% | |
| Democrat 3-6% | – | |
| Democrat 6-9% | 18.9% | |
| Democrat 9-12% | 12.3% | |
| Democrat 12-15% | 3.7% | |
| Democrat 15-18% | – | |
| Democrat 18%+ | 3.8% |
Prices which party wins.
Bob Brooks: Counted · bid 85.0% / ask 86.0% · $8.6K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Bob Brooks: Counted · bid 86.0% / ask 87.0% · $62.2K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Bob Brooks
If the House member sworn in for PA-07 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
