House · 3 November 2026

CA-23 House 2026

97.6% RJay Obernolte leads TruthIndex™Safe R

Polymarket: 97.7%
Kalshi: 97.2%
Spread: 0.5 pts
24h: –
7 days: +2.4
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for CA-23 House.

2 stories this week

Top story

RELEASE: Gottheimer Discusses AI Policy at the University of Pennsylvania

The bipartisan American AI Security Act, with Rep. Mike Lawler (NY-17), to require pre-deployment testing to address AI’s national security risks.

gottheimer.house.govOfficialYesterday

Obernolte Mele

Today
ANCA endorses congressional allies for 2026 midterm elections
Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA-42) – B [...] Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) – A

armenianweekly.com3h agoMiller-Meeks McBath Correa McClain Sánchez Lee Friedman Mfume Rivet Mullin Calvert Morrison Cammack Chu Harder Olszewski Rutherford Moolenaar Garamendi Castro Patronis Panetta McGovern Baird Shreve Hurd Obernolte

Jay Obernolte, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RJay Obernolte	97.6%		97.7%	97.2%	0.5 pts	–
DTessa Lynn Hodge	2.0%		1.8%	2.3%	0.5 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ca-23/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-ca-23">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Jay Obernolte

Republican U.S. Representative for California's 23rd congressional district (since 2021)

Jay Obernolte, a Republican who has represented California's 23rd congressional district since 2021, when it was numbered the 8th, faces Democrat Tessa Lynn Hodge, a clinical social worker, in the 2026 general election.

Born 1970 · Chicago, Illinois

Full candidate profile →

Tessa Lynn Hodge

Democratic

Tessa Lynn Hodge, a Democrat and clinical social worker, faces Republican incumbent Jay Obernolte in the 2026 general election for California's 23rd congressional district after placing second in the top-two primary.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi200 contracts

California's 23rd District margin of victory

Obernolte, 2+ pts		94.3%
Obernolte, 5+ pts		89.8%
Obernolte, 8+ pts		81.0%
Obernolte, 11+ pts		69.0%
Obernolte, 14+ pts		55.0%
Obernolte, 17+ pts		–
Obernolte, 20+ pts		27.0%
Obernolte, 23+ pts		16.0%
Obernolte, 26+ pts		8.2%

Source: Kalshi market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$102.2K traded

Prices which party wins.

Jay Obernolte: Counted · bid 97.1% / ask 98.3% · $6.7K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi3.3K contracts traded