nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

CA-27 House 2026

95.9% DGeorge Whitesides leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
96.0%
Kalshi
95.8%
Spread
0.3 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.5
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for CA-27 House.

  1. SCVNews.com | Oct. 24: Fort Tejon Paranormal Investigation with Marie Mason

    The page mentions Jason Gibbs as a byline contributor for SCVNews, indicating he authored or contributed to local coverage.

    scvnews.comGibbs
  2. ANCA Endorses Congressional Allies; Grades Members of Congress on Pro-Armenian Priorities

    Rep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C

    asbarez.comMcBathBeattyHarderMorelleJoyceNeguseHayesSolisConawayReschenthalerBilirakisThompsonCisnerosWhitesidesLatimerPalmerAmoLucasBurlisonValadaoRouzerJoyceStrongWestermanPettersenMastJackBoyleShermanKnottWagnerMejiaAdamsMcDowellBeanCorreaUnderwoodCastorJacksonWilsonHimesJeffriesDavisTranBentzKurdian
  3. 101 Members of Congress Support Measure to Ask Rubio to Continue Waiver of Military Support for Azerbaijan - The Armenian Mirror-Spectator

    Friedman (D-CA), Robert Garcia (D-CA), Jimmy Gomez (D-CA), Young Kim (R-CA), Mike Levin (D-CA), Sam Liccardo (D-CA), Ted Lieu (D-CA), Zoe Lofgren (D-CA), Dave Min (D-CA), Kevin Mullin (D-CA), Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), Luz…

    mirrorspectator.comWhitesidesLatimerTaylorSchneiderCarson
  4. Press Release: Vindman Introduces Bill to Ban Live-Streaming of Military Executions

    Topic: Rep. Eugene Vindman introduced the American Integrity Act to bar live-streaming of military executions under the Uniformed Code of Military Justice.

    Quiver QuantitativeWhitesidesVindman

George Whitesides, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DGeorge Whitesides 95.9% 96.0% 95.8% 0.2 pts –
RJason Gibbs 3.2% 3.3% 3.0% 0.3 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ca-27/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-ca-27">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

George Whitesides

George Whitesides

Democratic U.S. Representative for California's 27th congressional district (since 2025)

George Whitesides, a Democrat and former Virgin Galactic CEO who has represented California's 27th congressional district since 2025, faces Republican Jason Gibbs, a Santa Clarita city councilor, in the 2026 general election.

Born 1974 · Massachusetts

Jason Gibbs

Republican Member of the Santa Clarita City Council (since 2020)

Jason Gibbs, a Republican member of the Santa Clarita city council since 2020, faces Democratic incumbent George Whitesides in 2026 for California's 27th congressional district after finishing first in the top-two primary.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi400 contracts

California's 27th District margin of victory

Whitesides, 10+ pts
87.8%
Whitesides, 13+ pts
78.0%
Whitesides, 16+ pts
66.0%
Whitesides, 19+ pts
–
Whitesides, 22+ pts
36.0%
Whitesides, 25+ pts
–
Whitesides, 28+ pts
13.2%
Whitesides, 31+ pts
6.2%
Whitesides, 34+ pts
4.3%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$430 traded

CA-27 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins
–
Democrat 0-5%
7.0%
Democrat 5-10%
–
Democrat 10-15%
–
Democrat 15-20%
–
Democrat 20-25%
–
Democrat 25-30%
–
Democrat 30%+
–
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$22.9K traded

Prices which party wins.

George Whitesides: Counted · bid 95.2% / ask 96.8% · $730 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-27 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi7.6K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

George Whitesides: Counted · bid 95.8% / ask 95.9% · $1.5K within 5 pts

Contract shown: George Whitesides

If the House member sworn in for CA-27 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in California

  1. California GovernorD96%
  2. CA-01 HouseD95%
  3. CA-02 HouseD98%
  4. CA-03 HouseD96%
  5. CA-04 HouseD96%
  6. CA-05 HouseR93%
  7. CA-06 HouseD94%
  8. CA-07 HouseD97%