US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for CA-28 House.
The explainer covers how the newly drawn congressional maps affect South Texas, including the Valley and districts like TX-28 and TX-35 (with changes to Hidalgo County components).
Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA-42) – B [...] Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) – A
Races: Ken Calvert (R-Corona) and Young Kim (R-Anaheim) are the two incumbents at the top of the ticket in the redrawn CA-40, seeking reelection.
You can track bills proposed by Judy Chu on Quiver Quantitative's politician page for Chu.
ChuThe article covers Orange County’s 45th Congressional District (CA-45), not CA-31.
The article profiles candidates for California’s 26th Congressional District ( Ventura County’s largest district), where Democrat Jacqui Irwin (state assembly veteran) and Republican Sam Gallucci (pastor and former tech…
The Hill Country Post discusses South Texas Congressional District 28 (newly redrawn) and the contest between incumbent U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX-28) and Republican challenger Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJudy Chu | 97.3% | 96.8% | 98.4% | 1.6 pts | – | |
| RApril Verlato | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.1 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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April Verlato, a Republican and former Arcadia city councilor who was the district's runner-up in 2024, faces Democratic incumbent Judy Chu in the 2026 general election for California's 28th congressional district.
Judy Chu, a Democrat and psychologist who has served in Congress since 2009 and represents California's 28th congressional district, faces Republican April Verlato, a former Arcadia city councilor, in the 2026 general election.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
California's 28th District margin of victory
| Chu, 26+ pts | 87.8% | |
| Chu, 29+ pts | 78.0% | |
| Chu, 32+ pts | 65.0% | |
| Chu, 35+ pts | – | |
| Chu, 38+ pts | – | |
| Chu, 41+ pts | 21.0% | |
| Chu, 44+ pts | 10.4% | |
| Chu, 47+ pts | 5.3% | |
| Chu, 50+ pts | 3.8% |
Prices which party wins.
Judy Chu: Counted · bid 96.1% / ask 97.5% · $1.3K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Judy Chu: Counted · bid 98.3% / ask 98.4% · $675 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Judy Chu
If the House member sworn in for CA-28 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
