House · 3 November 2026

CA-29 House 2026

96.0% DDemocratic Party leads TruthIndex™ · Polymarket onlySafe D

Polymarket: 96.0%
Kalshi: –
Spread: –
24h: –
7 days: +0.3
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Polymarket prices which party wins in this contest and Kalshi prices which candidate wins. The two are different questions, so each venue's prices are shown separately.

Democratic Party, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. Only one venue lists it, so the figure comes from that venue alone. The thinner line is that venue's own daily price.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
Which party wins · Polymarket
DDemocratic Party	96.0% Polymarket only	96.0%	–	–	–
RRepublican Party	3.2% Polymarket only	3.2%	–	–	–
Which candidate wins · Kalshi
Luz Rivas	92.0% Kalshi only	–	92.0%	–	–
Angélica María Dueñas	7.0% Kalshi only	–	7.0%	–	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Luz Rivas

Luz Rivas is a candidate for the US House in California's 29th congressional district (CA-29) in 2026.

Full candidate profile →

Angélica María Dueñas

Angélica María Dueñas is a candidate for the US House in California's 29th congressional district (CA-29) in 2026.

Full candidate profile →

Each venue's market

Polymarket$30.9K traded

Prices which party wins.

Democratic Party: Counted · bid 95.2% / ask 96.9% · $890 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-29 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi13.5K contracts traded

Prices which candidate wins.

Luz Rivas: Counted · bid 91.0% / ask 93.0% · $776 within 5 pts

Contract shown: Luz Rivas

If Luz Rivas wins the 2026 CA-29 House election, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi