nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

CA-30 House 2026

96.9% DLaura Friedman leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
95.8%
Kalshi
98.6%
Spread
2.8 pts
24h
–
7 days
+1.0
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for CA-30 House.

  1. In-House Opinions: Congress members on the death penalty

    Rep. Laura Friedman, D-Burbank: “Secretary Hegseth’s insistence on livestreaming this execution is beyond sick.

    Los Angeles Daily NewsFriedman

Laura Friedman, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DLaura Friedman 96.9% 95.8% 98.6% 2.8 pts –
RScott Meyers 3.2% 3.2% 1.9% 1.3 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Laura Friedman

Laura Friedman

Democratic U.S. Representative for California's 30th congressional district (since 2025)

Laura Friedman, a Democrat and former film producer who has represented California's 30th congressional district since 2025, faces Republican attorney Scott Meyers in the 2026 general election.

Born 1966 · Brooklyn, New York

Scott Meyers

Republican

Scott Meyers, a Republican attorney, faces Democratic incumbent Laura Friedman in the 2026 general election for California's 30th congressional district after finishing second in a seven-candidate top-two primary.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi0 contracts

California's 30th District margin of victory

Friedman, 35+ pts
95.7%
Friedman, 38+ pts
94.3%
Friedman, 41+ pts
87.5%
Friedman, 44+ pts
–
Friedman, 47+ pts
61.0%
Friedman, 50+ pts
43.0%
Friedman, 53+ pts
27.0%
Friedman, 56+ pts
13.2%
Friedman, 59+ pts
5.5%
Source: Kalshi market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$35.3K traded

Prices which party wins.

Laura Friedman: Counted · bid 94.6% / ask 97.0% · $1.2K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi3.2K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Laura Friedman: Counted · bid 97.4% / ask 99.7% · $827 within 5 pts

Contract shown: Laura Friedman

If the House member sworn in for CA-30 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in California

  1. California GovernorD96%
  2. CA-01 HouseD95%
  3. CA-02 HouseD98%
  4. CA-03 HouseD96%
  5. CA-04 HouseD96%
  6. CA-05 HouseR93%
  7. CA-06 HouseD94%
  8. CA-07 HouseD97%