House · 3 November 2026

CA-37 House 2026

95.2% DSydney Kamlager-Dove leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 95.3%
Kalshi: 94.5%
Spread: 1.7 pts
24h: –
7 days: +1.0
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Sydney Kamlager-Dove, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DSydney Kamlager-Dove	95.2%		95.3%	94.5%	0.8 pts	–
Samantha Mota	4.0%		4.2%	2.5%	1.7 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Sydney Kamlager-Dove

Democratic U.S. Representative for California's 37th congressional district (since 2023)

Sydney Kamlager-Dove, a Democrat who has represented California's 37th congressional district since 2023, faces fellow Democrat Samantha Mota, a community activist, for re-election to the 37th district seat in 2026.

Born 1972 · Chicago, Illinois

Full candidate profile →

Samantha Mota

Samantha Mota is a candidate for the US House in California's 37th congressional district (CA-37) in 2026.

Full candidate profile →

Each venue's market

Polymarket$43.9K traded

Prices which candidate wins.

Sydney Kamlager-Dove: Counted · bid 93.5% / ask 97.1% · $1.4K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-37 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi22.4K contracts traded

Prices which candidate wins.

Sydney Kamlager-Dove: Counted · bid 94.0% / ask 95.0% · $204 within 5 pts

Contract shown: Sydney Kamlager-Dove

If Sydney Kamlager-Dove wins the 2026 CA-37 House election, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi