House · 3 November 2026

CA-38 House 2026

97.6% DHilda Solis leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 97.4%
Kalshi: 98.0%
Spread: 0.7 pts
24h: –
7 days: −0.7
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for CA-38 House.

1 story this week

Top story

ANCA Endorses Congressional Allies; Grades Members of Congress on Pro-Armenian Priorities

Rep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C

Hilda Solis, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DHilda Solis	97.6%		97.4%	98.0%	0.6 pts	–
RPedro Casas	0.9%		0.5%	1.1%	0.7 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

Share this race

Embed the live card

The card updates on your page every 5 minutes and links back to this race. Paste the code into an HTML or embed block; it fits any width up to 680 pixels.

<iframe src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ca-38/embed.html" title="CA-38 House: live odds from Nijinn" style="width:100%;max-width:680px;height:400px;border:0" loading="lazy" scrolling="no"></iframe>
<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ca-38/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-ca-38">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

Where frames are not allowed, the image card, linked to this race, updates with each refresh:

<a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ca-38/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-image&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-ca-38"><img src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ca-38/card-landscape.png" alt="CA-38 House: odds from Nijinn" width="600" height="315" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border:0"></a>

Candidates & Background

Hilda Solis

Democratic Member of the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors from the 1st district (since 2014)

Hilda Solis, a Democrat who serves on the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors and was U.S. secretary of labor from 2009 to 2013, faces Republican psychologist Pedro Casas for the open 38th district seat in 2026.

Born 1957 · Los Angeles, California

Full candidate profile →

Pedro Casas

Republican

Pedro Casas, a Republican psychologist who ran for California's 31st congressional district in 2024, faces Democrat Hilda Solis, a Los Angeles County supervisor, for the open 38th district seat in 2026.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi400 contracts

California's 38th District margin of victory

Solis, 9+ pts		95.6%
Solis, 12+ pts		92.8%
Solis, 15+ pts		88.8%
Solis, 18+ pts		79.0%
Solis, 21+ pts		67.0%
Solis, 24+ pts		53.0%
Solis, 27+ pts		37.0%
Solis, 30+ pts		24.0%
Solis, 33+ pts		13.3%
Solis, 36+ pts		6.2%
Solis, 39+ pts		4.3%
Solis, 42+ pts		3.4%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$289 traded

CA-38 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins		3.2%
Democrat 0-5%		–
Democrat 5-10%		–
Democrat 10-15%		–
Democrat 15-20%		–
Democrat 20-25%		–
Democrat 25-30%		–
Democrat 30%+		–

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$65.9K traded

Prices which party wins.

Hilda Solis: Counted · bid 95.9% / ask 98.8% · $1.1K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi2.4K contracts traded