nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

CA-41 House 2026

95.7% DLinda Sánchez leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
95.7%
Kalshi
95.7%
Spread
0.5 pts
24h
–
7 days
−0.4
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for CA-41 House.

  1. Races in redrawn districts could determine control of House | California

    Calvert received$799,000 from the Calvert Victory Fund, a joint fundraising committee to support the incumbent Congressman. He also received more than $138,000 from Grow the Majority and $32,000 from Flexpoint Media.

    The Center SquareSánchezValadao

Linda Sánchez, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DLinda Sánchez 95.7% 95.7% 95.7% 0.0 pts –
RMitch Clemmons 4.2% 4.3% 3.8% 0.5 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Linda Sánchez

Linda Sánchez

Democratic U.S. Representative for California's 38th congressional district (since 2013)

Linda Sánchez, a Democrat who has served in the U.S. House since 2003 and represents California's 38th congressional district, faces Republican plumbing contractor Mitch Clemmons for California's 41st congressional district in 2026.

Born 1969 · Orange, California

Mitch Clemmons

Republican

Mitch Clemmons, a Republican plumbing contractor who was runner-up for California's 30th senatorial district in 2022, faces Democratic incumbent Linda Sánchez for California's 41st congressional district in 2026.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi200 contracts

California's 41st District margin of victory

Sánchez, 15+ pts
89.8%
Sánchez, 18+ pts
81.0%
Sánchez, 21+ pts
69.0%
Sánchez, 24+ pts
55.0%
Sánchez, 27+ pts
–
Sánchez, 30+ pts
26.0%
Sánchez, 33+ pts
15.5%
Sánchez, 36+ pts
7.2%
Sánchez, 39+ pts
4.5%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$0 traded

CA-41 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins
4.0%
Democrat 0-5%
–
Democrat 5-10%
–
Democrat 10-15%
–
Democrat 15-20%
–
Democrat 20-25%
–
Democrat 25-30%
–
Democrat 30%+
–
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$23.0K traded

Prices which party wins.

Linda Sánchez: Counted · bid 94.8% / ask 96.6% · $18.6K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-41 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi11.2K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Linda Sánchez: Counted · bid 94.3% / ask 97.1% · $1.2K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Linda Sánchez

If the House member sworn in for CA-41 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

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