nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

CA-44 House 2026

98.1% DNanette Barragán leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
97.8%
Kalshi
98.7%
Spread
0.9 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.5
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for CA-44 House.

  1. 2026 United States general election

    31st districtEric J Ching (R) vs Gilbert Cisneros (D)KeyOpen

    elekt.ioBrignanoAngel

Nanette Barragán, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DNanette Barragán 98.1% 97.8% 98.7% 0.9 pts –
RGenevieve Angel 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Genevieve Angel

Republican

Genevieve Angel, a Republican healthcare executive, faces Democratic incumbent Nanette Barragán for California's 44th congressional district in 2026 after finishing second in the top-two primary.

Nanette Barragán

Nanette Barragán

Democratic U.S. Representative for California's 44th congressional district (since 2017)

Nanette Barragán, a Democrat who has represented California's 44th congressional district since 2017 and chairs the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, faces Republican healthcare executive Genevieve Angel in 2026.

Born 1976 · Harbor City, Los Angeles

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi405 contracts

California's 44th District margin of victory

Barragán, 40+ pts
92.4%
Barragán, 43+ pts
84.5%
Barragán, 46+ pts
72.0%
Barragán, 49+ pts
55.0%
Barragán, 52+ pts
37.0%
Barragán, 55+ pts
21.0%
Barragán, 58+ pts
9.3%
Barragán, 61+ pts
4.5%
Barragán, 64+ pts
3.4%
Source: Kalshi market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$47.3K traded

Prices which party wins.

Nanette Barragán: Counted · bid 97.3% / ask 98.2% · $1.2K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-44 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi807 contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Nanette Barragán: Counted · bid 97.7% / ask 99.7% · $872 within 5 pts

Contract shown: Nanette Barragán

If the House member sworn in for CA-44 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in California

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  4. CA-03 HouseD96%
  5. CA-04 HouseD96%
  6. CA-05 HouseR93%
  7. CA-06 HouseD94%
  8. CA-07 HouseD97%