nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

CA-47 House 2026

96.3% DDave Min leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
97.2%
Kalshi
95.8%
Spread
1.4 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.6
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for CA-47 House.

  1. SuperSport Schools News

    Focus: The article reports on a Schools SA20 cricket match where Paarl Gimnasium (Gimmies) achieved a seven-wicket win over Tulbagh High.

    superschoolsnews.co.zaRoux
  2. Ansari Introduces Bipartisan IRAN Act to Expand Internet Freedom for the Iranian People

    Representatives Yassamin Ansari (AZ-03) and Claudia Tenney (NY-24) introduced the bipartisan Internet Reach and Access Now (IRAN) Act. The bill aims to strengthen U.S.

    ansari.house.govOfficialGottheimerWalkinshawAuchinclossMinTenneyCarson
  3. Knowles-Rowland House Opens with Investment from AIC CEI-Boulos Opportunity Fund

    Project: Knowles-Rowland House, a 31-unit permanent supportive housing development in Midtown Houston, opened with major investment from the AIC CEI-Boulos Opportunity Fund (CEI-Boulos Capital Management and Allivate…

    EIN PresswireRoux
  4. Next Wave Awards Master Distiller of the Year: Jenny Camarena

    The article profiles Jenny Camarena, who became El Tesoro’s Master Distiller in 2025 at age 37: the fourth in the brand’s history and its first female master distiller.

    vinepair.comRoux
  5. Restoring a Mother's Legacy: Jinny Blom's Joyful Transformation of a French Home (2026)

    A house in Saint-Antonin-Noble-Val, France, lovingly restored as a living tribute to Françoise, a pivotal influence in Jinny Blom’s life.

    woodlandindianartcenter.orgRoux
More coverage 4
  1. Gateway - Quartz

    California Rep. Dave Min (CA-47) has led a bipartisan inquiry along with Sen. Elizabeth Warren into five tech firms (Nvidia, Meta, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon).

    QuartzMin
  2. Nvidia y Apple pusieron USD 25 millones cada una para el salón de baile de Trump

    The article reports that Nvidia and Apple each donated $25 million for a Trump-related gala event.

    InfobaeMin
  3. Costa Mesa notches a double win for Westside park spaces - Los Angeles Times

    The Los Angeles Times article reports that Costa Mesa secured a two-part improvement for Westside park spaces, aided by a $1 million allocation tied to a broader $10 million parks package earmarked in 2022 by then-Sen.

    LA TimesMin
  4. Nvidia and Apple pledged $25 million each to Trump's ballroom

    California Rep. Dave Min (CA-47) helped lead a bipartisan effort with Sen. Elizabeth Warren to question five tech giants over their ballroom donations to former President Trump: Nvidia, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, and…

    QuartzMin

Dave Min, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DDave Min 96.3% 97.2% 95.8% 1.4 pts –
RJenny Le Roux 3.0% 3.0% 2.9% 0.1 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ca-47/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-ca-47">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Dave Min

Dave Min

Democratic U.S. Representative for California's 47th congressional district (since 2025)

Dave Min, a Democrat who has represented California's 47th congressional district since 2025 after four years in the California State Senate, faces Republican entrepreneur Jenny Le Roux in his 2026 re-election race.

Born 1976 · Providence, Rhode Island

Jenny Le Roux

Republican

Jenny Le Roux, a Republican entrepreneur who ran for governor in 2022, is challenging Democratic incumbent Dave Min in California's 47th congressional district in the 2026 election.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi0 contracts

California's 47th District margin of victory

Min, 9+ pts
87.7%
Min, 12+ pts
79.0%
Min, 15+ pts
67.0%
Min, 18+ pts
54.0%
Min, 21+ pts
–
Min, 24+ pts
28.0%
Min, 27+ pts
17.0%
Min, 30+ pts
9.1%
Min, 33+ pts
5.1%
Source: Kalshi market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$29.3K traded

Prices which party wins.

Dave Min: Counted · bid 96.5% / ask 97.9% · $960 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi6.7K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Dave Min: Counted · bid 95.1% / ask 96.6% · $1.9K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Dave Min

If the House member sworn in for CA-47 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in California

  1. California GovernorD96%
  2. CA-01 HouseD95%
  3. CA-02 HouseD98%
  4. CA-03 HouseD96%
  5. CA-04 HouseD96%
  6. CA-05 HouseR93%
  7. CA-06 HouseD94%
  8. CA-07 HouseD97%