US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for CA-49 House.
The Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA) released 2026 congressional ratings and a list of preferred candidates for the Armenian American community.
Races: Ken Calvert (R-Corona) and Young Kim (R-Anaheim) are the two incumbents at the top of the ticket in the redrawn CA-40, seeking reelection.
Rep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C
McBath
Beatty
Harder
Morelle
Joyce
Neguse
Hayes
Solis
Conaway
Reschenthaler
Bilirakis
Thompson
Cisneros
Whitesides
Latimer
Palmer
Amo
Lucas
Burlison
Valadao
Rouzer
Joyce
Strong
Westerman
Pettersen
Mast
Jack
Boyle
Sherman
Knott
Wagner
Mejia
Adams
McDowell
Bean
Correa
Underwood
Castor
Jackson
Wilson
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Jeffries
Davis
Tran
BentzKurdianThe article discusses a California House race in the newly drawn 6th Congressional District for the Nov. 3 election, featuring Democrat Richard Pan vs. Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-CA).
The endorsement article from the Daily Herald endorses Maura Hirschauer for Illinois House District 49 (western suburbs: Batavia, West Chicago, South Elgin, Wayne, Bartlett, parts of Aurora and Geneva).
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DMike Levin | 96.2% | 96.5% | 96.0% | 0.5 pts | – | |
| RArmen Kurdian | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 0.2 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Armen Kurdian, a Republican and retired Navy captain, is challenging Democratic incumbent Mike Levin in California's 49th congressional district in the 2026 election.
Mike Levin, a Democrat who has represented California's 49th congressional district in the U.S. House since 2019, faces Republican Armen Kurdian, a retired Navy captain, in his 2026 re-election race.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
California's 49th District margin of victory
| Levin, 9+ pts | 92.5% | |
| Levin, 12+ pts | 86.8% | |
| Levin, 15+ pts | 77.0% | |
| Levin, 18+ pts | 65.0% | |
| Levin, 21+ pts | – | |
| Levin, 24+ pts | 37.0% | |
| Levin, 27+ pts | 24.0% | |
| Levin, 30+ pts | 14.2% | |
| Levin, 33+ pts | 7.0% |
Prices which party wins.
Mike Levin: Counted · bid 95.7% / ask 97.4% · $949 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-49 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Mike Levin: Counted · bid 96.0% / ask 96.1% · $1.6K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Mike Levin
If the House member sworn in for CA-49 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
