US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for IL-07 House.
The page appears to discuss who is running for the U.S. House in the Chicago area for the 2026 midterms, including information on candidates and elections in various districts.
La Shawn Ford is a chief sponsor of the Illinois House bill related to a taxing proposal on millionaires to fund schools. The proposal was re-referred to the House Rules Committee on July 1.
FordNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DLa Shawn Ford | 96.8% | 96.2% | 98.2% | 2.0 pts | – | |
| RChad Koppie | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 0.2 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Chad Koppie, a Republican member of the Kane County Regional Board of Schools and perennial candidate, faces Democrat La Shawn Ford for Illinois's open 7th congressional district seat in 2026.
La Shawn Ford, a Democrat who has represented the 8th district in the Illinois House of Representatives since 2007, is his party's nominee for Illinois's open 7th congressional district seat in 2026 against Republican Chad Koppie.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Illinois's 7th District margin of victory
| Ford, 56+ pts | 94.8% | |
| Ford, 59+ pts | 89.4% | |
| Ford, 62+ pts | 78.0% implied | |
| Ford, 65+ pts | 67.0% implied | |
| Ford, 68+ pts | 61.5% | |
| Ford, 71+ pts | 43.5% | |
| Ford, 74+ pts | 31.5% | |
| Ford, 77+ pts | 18.5% | |
| Ford, 80+ pts | 7.8% |
IL-07 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 1.1% | |
| Democrat 0-45% | 0.5% | |
| Democrat 45-55% | 4.1% | |
| Democrat 55-60% | 5.0% | |
| Democrat 60-65% | 19.3% | |
| Democrat 65-70% | 26.5% | |
| Democrat 70-75% | 23.6% | |
| Democrat 75-80% | 17.8% | |
| Democrat 80-85% | 6.3% | |
| Democrat 85%+ | 3.4% |
Prices which party wins.
La Shawn Ford: Counted · bid 94.7% / ask 97.7% · $1.1K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
La Shawn Ford: Counted · bid 96.6% / ask 99.7% · $543 within 5 pts
Contract shown: La Shawn Ford
If the House member sworn in for IL-07 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
