nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

IL-10 House 2026

97.1% DBrad Schneider leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
96.8%
Kalshi
97.5%
Spread
0.7 pts
24h
–
7 days
0.0
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for IL-10 House.

  1. Brad Schneider: 2026 candidate for the 10th Congressional District

    Bio Office sought: 10th Congressional District Party: Democrat City: Highland Park Age: 65 Previous offices held: U.S. Representative for Illinois's 10th

    Daily HeraldSchneider
  2. 髓系选择性IL-10受体激动剂：基于TYK2依赖性与受体几何构象的细胞类型选择性细胞因子信号工程

    The article reports on a Nature study about engineering myeloid-selective IL-10 receptor agonists (msIL-10R) using four-spot nanobody constructs that bias signaling through TYK2.

    ebiotrade.comLambrecht
  3. "Hinduism teaches non-violence": Ro Khanna, US lawmakers condemn attempted attack on Hindu temple

    In a post on X, Bera said, “This incident is a stark reminder of the threats facing Hindu communities and other communities targeted by religious and racial hatred," adding that every American has the right to worship…

    The Tribune (India)Schneider
  4. 101 Members of Congress Support Measure to Ask Rubio to Continue Waiver of Military Support for Azerbaijan - The Armenian Mirror-Spectator

    Friedman (D-CA), Robert Garcia (D-CA), Jimmy Gomez (D-CA), Young Kim (R-CA), Mike Levin (D-CA), Sam Liccardo (D-CA), Ted Lieu (D-CA), Zoe Lofgren (D-CA), Dave Min (D-CA), Kevin Mullin (D-CA), Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), Luz…

    mirrorspectator.comWhitesidesLatimerTaylorSchneiderCarson
  5. 'Summer House': Stephen McGee Doesn't Want Carl Radke Back Next Summer (Exclusive)

    The exclusive ET Online piece reveals that Stephen McGee does not want Carl Radke back on Summer House for next season.

    etonline.comLambrecht
More coverage 3
  1. The Shift: DHS raid on Ilhan Omar’s house is ‘exactly what a fascist police state does’

    The article from Mondoweiss reports that federal agents raided the home of Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) in Washington, D.C., as part of an ongoing federal criminal investigation into alleged immigration fraud.

    mondoweiss.netLambrecht
  2. Microglial Cannabinoid Receptors Emerge as Key Players in Pain and Brain

    The article reports on how microglial cannabinoid receptor CB2 (Cnr2) deletion affects pain and brain immune signaling in mice.

    scienmag.comLambrecht
  3. Inherited IL-10 Gene Pattern Flags Septic Shock Risk in ICU Patients

    Study focus: Investigates how inherited patterns in the IL-10 gene (two SNPs: rs1518111 and rs1554286) relate to septic shock risk and physiological changes in ICU patients.

    scienmag.comLambrecht

Brad Schneider, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DBrad Schneider 97.1% 96.8% 97.5% 0.7 pts –
RCarl Lambrecht 2.0% 1.8% 2.1% 0.3 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Brad Schneider

Brad Schneider

Democratic U.S. Representative for Illinois's 10th congressional district (since 2017)

Brad Schneider, a Democrat who has represented Illinois's 10th congressional district since 2017 after an earlier term from 2013 to 2015, is seeking re-election in 2026 against Republican Carl Lambrecht, an optics manufacturer.

Born 1961 · Denver, Colorado

Carl Lambrecht

Republican

Carl Lambrecht, a Republican optics manufacturer and the party's 2024 nominee for the Illinois House's 58th district, faces Democratic incumbent Brad Schneider in the 2026 election for Illinois's 10th congressional district.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi2.8K contracts

Illinois's 10th District margin of victory

Schneider, 19+ pts
95.9%
Schneider, 22+ pts
85.5%
Schneider, 25+ pts
74.5%
Schneider, 28+ pts
63.5%
Schneider, 31+ pts
52.5%
Schneider, 34+ pts
42.5%
Schneider, 37+ pts
31.5%
Schneider, 40+ pts
20.5%
Schneider, 43+ pts
9.8%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$20.6K traded

IL-10 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins
0.6%
Democrat 0-10%
1.1%
Democrat 10-20%
3.9%
Democrat 20-25%
5.2%
Democrat 25-30%
–
Democrat 30-35%
41.5%
Democrat 35-40%
26.2%
Democrat 40-45%
–
Democrat 45-50%
3.4%
Democrat 50%+
0.4%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$33.7K traded

Prices which party wins.

Brad Schneider: Counted · bid 96.8% / ask 96.9% · $992 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi2.4K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Brad Schneider: Counted · bid 96.2% / ask 98.9% · $682 within 5 pts

Contract shown: Brad Schneider

If the House member sworn in for IL-10 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Illinois

  1. Illinois SenateD98%
  2. Illinois GovernorD97%
  3. IL-01 HouseD96%
  4. IL-02 HouseD96%
  5. IL-03 HouseD96%
  6. IL-04 HouseD96%
  7. IL-05 HouseD97%
  8. IL-06 HouseD97%