House · 3 November 2026

IL-15 House 2026

95.6% RMary Miller leads TruthIndex™Safe R

Polymarket: 96.0%
Kalshi: 95.3%
Spread: 0.7 pts
24h: –
7 days: −0.2
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

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Recent coverage for IL-15 House.

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County Democrats host Nov. 3 candidates

Jennifer Todd is running as a Democrat for Illinois' 15th Congressional District against incumbent Mary Miller.

Clinton JournalYesterdayTodd

Mary Miller, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RMary Miller	95.6%		96.0%	95.3%	0.7 pts	–
DJennifer Todd	3.8%		3.8%	4.3%	0.6 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/il-15/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-il-15">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Jennifer Todd

Democratic

Jennifer Todd, a Democrat and former nurse, is the Democratic nominee for Illinois's 15th congressional district in 2026, facing Republican incumbent Mary Miller in the November 3 general election.

Full candidate profile →

Mary Miller

Republican U.S. Representative for Illinois's 15th congressional district (since 2021)

Mary Miller, a Republican farmer who has represented Illinois's 15th congressional district since 2021, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Jennifer Todd, a former nurse.

Oak Park, Illinois

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi1.4K contracts

Illinois's 15th District margin of victory

Miller, 21+ pts		91.5%
Miller, 24+ pts		81.0%
Miller, 27+ pts		71.0%
Miller, 30+ pts		61.0%
Miller, 33+ pts		51.0%
Miller, 36+ pts		40.0%
Miller, 39+ pts		30.0%
Miller, 42+ pts		20.0%
Miller, 45+ pts		9.9%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$18.1K traded

IL-15 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins		2.4%
Republican 0-10%		–
Republican 10-20%		4.4%
Republican 20-25%		14.7%
Republican 25-30%		33.4%
Republican 30-35%		24.0%
Republican 35-40%		13.5%
Republican 40-45%		4.4%
Republican 45-50%		–
Republican 50%+		4.4%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$44.2K traded

Prices which party wins.

Mary Miller: Counted · bid 95.0% / ask 97.1% · $315 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi3.2K contracts traded