US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for IN-02 House.
1) The unknowns and jockeying around potential leadership contenders, including Jason Smith (Missouri) and other members who are considering runs or influenced by internal groups like the Republican Study Committee…
The Indiana Capital Chronicle reports that Indiana Democrats are leveraging broad opposition to large data-center projects to try to gain seats in the Indiana House.
Several members of the Republican Study Committee (RSC) have already done so, signing the Vice President's Pledge to Protect Americans from Fraud.
The page appears to discuss who is running for the U.S. House in the Chicago area for the 2026 midterms, including information on candidates and elections in various districts.
The article, titled “When Rudy and his friends get rich, Hoosiers pay,” discusses concerns about insider trading and financial dealings involving Rudy Yakym (IN-02) and allied figures.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RRudy Yakym | 96.3% | 96.2% | 96.8% | 0.5 pts | – | |
| DJamee Decio | 3.4% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.6 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Jamee Decio, a Democrat and attorney, is the Democratic nominee for Indiana's 2nd congressional district in 2026, challenging Republican incumbent Rudy Yakym in the November 3 general election.
Rudy Yakym, a Republican businessman who has represented Indiana's 2nd congressional district since winning a 2022 special election, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Jamee Decio, an attorney.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Indiana's 2nd District margin of victory
| Yakym, 10+ pts | 86.1% | |
| Yakym, 13+ pts | 73.5% | |
| Yakym, 16+ pts | 60.5% | |
| Yakym, 19+ pts | 47.5% | |
| Yakym, 22+ pts | 34.5% | |
| Yakym, 25+ pts | 21.5% | |
| Yakym, 28+ pts | 16.5% | |
| Yakym, 31+ pts | 10.0% | |
| Yakym, 34+ pts | 5.5% |
IN-02 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 0.7% | |
| Republican 0-5% | 4.1% | |
| Republican 5-10% | 13.3% | |
| Republican 10-15% | 32.5% | |
| Republican 15-20% | 27.6% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 25.0% | |
| Republican 25-30% | 4.2% | |
| Republican 30-35% | 3.2% | |
| Republican 35%+ | 2.0% |
Prices which party wins.
Rudy Yakym: Counted · bid 96.2% / ask 96.3% · $11.5K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Rudy Yakym: Counted · bid 95.4% / ask 98.1% · $1.4K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Rudy Yakym
If the House member sworn in for IN-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
