nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

IN-01 House 2026

96.9% DFrank Mrvan leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
96.8%
Kalshi
97.0%
Spread
0.3 pts
24h
–
7 days
−0.3
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for IN-01 House.

  1. Gov. Braun says no lobbying by him on Indiana redistricting issue

    The article reports that Indiana Governor Mike Braun stated he did not lobby on the state's redistricting issue.

    pro.stateaffairs.comRegnitz
  2. Jennifer-Ruth Green Withdraws From Indiana 1st District GOP Primary

    The article reports that Jennifer-Ruth Green withdrew from the Indiana 1st Congressional District GOP primary.

    pro.stateaffairs.comRegnitz
  3. Former U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean seeks return to Congress in race vs. Republican Jennifer Davis - CBS Chicago

    The CBS Chicago article covers former U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean seeking to return to Congress in Illinois’ 8th District, challenging Republican Jennifer Davis.

    CBS NewsDavisEstiFortierHouchinMaxwellRegnitz
  4. Secretary Pete Buttigieg stumps for Mrvan, Houldieson

    Pete Buttigieg campaigned in Schererville to support Congressman Frank Mrvan (IN-01) and Senate candidate Scott Houldieson, highlighting Mrvan in his remarks. The event was covered by The Times (photographer John J.

    Northwest Indiana TimesMrvan
  5. Who is running for the U.S. House in the Chicago area during the 2026 midterm elections? - CBS Chicago

    The page appears to discuss who is running for the U.S. House in the Chicago area for the 2026 midterms, including information on candidates and elections in various districts.

    CBS NewsCastilloUnderwoodFordEstiFortierJacksonEllesonDavisMarterDecioFordCoxMillerHannonRamirezLaHoodBissMaxwellGegenMeyerRegnitzChai

Frank Mrvan, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DFrank Mrvan 96.9% 96.8% 97.0% 0.2 pts –
RBarb Regnitz 1.5% 1.4% 1.6% 0.3 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Barb Regnitz

Republican Porter County Commissioner (since 2023)

Barb Regnitz, a Republican Porter County commissioner, is the Republican nominee for Indiana's 1st congressional district in 2026, challenging Democratic incumbent Frank Mrvan in the November 3 general election.

Frank Mrvan

Frank Mrvan

Democratic U.S. Representative for Indiana's 1st congressional district (since 2021)

Frank Mrvan, a Democrat who has represented Indiana's 1st congressional district since 2021 after serving as North Township trustee, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican Barb Regnitz, a Porter County commissioner.

Born 1969 · Hammond, Indiana

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi3.2K contracts

Indiana's 1st District margin of victory

Mrvan, 3+ pts
87.4%
Mrvan, 6+ pts
80.0%
Mrvan, 9+ pts
69.5%
Mrvan, 12+ pts
53.5%
Mrvan, 15+ pts
43.5%
Mrvan, 18+ pts
30.5%
Mrvan, 21+ pts
21.0%
Mrvan, 24+ pts
12.0%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$12.8K traded

IN-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins
2.3%
Democrat 0-5%
2.8%
Democrat 5-10%
3.6%
Democrat 10-15%
–
Democrat 15-20%
31.0%
Democrat 20-25%
32.5%
Democrat 25-30%
12.0%
Democrat 30%+
2.7%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$24.1K traded

Prices which party wins.

Frank Mrvan: Counted · bid 95.8% / ask 97.9% · $5.3K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi31.5K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Frank Mrvan: Counted · bid 95.9% / ask 98.1% · $1.4K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Frank Mrvan

If the House member sworn in for IN-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Indiana

  1. IN-02 HouseR96%
  2. IN-03 HouseR96%
  3. IN-04 HouseR94%
  4. IN-05 HouseR82%
  5. IN-06 HouseR96%
  6. IN-07 HouseD97%
  7. IN-08 HouseR95%
  8. IN-09 HouseR97%