US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for IN-07 House.
Representatives Yassamin Ansari (AZ-03) and Claudia Tenney (NY-24) introduced the bipartisan Internet Reach and Access Now (IRAN) Act. The bill aims to strengthen U.S.
Friedman (D-CA), Robert Garcia (D-CA), Jimmy Gomez (D-CA), Young Kim (R-CA), Mike Levin (D-CA), Sam Liccardo (D-CA), Ted Lieu (D-CA), Zoe Lofgren (D-CA), Dave Min (D-CA), Kevin Mullin (D-CA), Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), Luz…
Whitesides
Latimer
Taylor
Schneider
CarsonTopic: U.S. lawmakers Andrew Carson (IN-07), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Bernie Sanders have proposed the AI Data Center Moratorium Act.
CarsonNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAndré Carson | 97.2% | 97.4% | 97.2% | 0.2 pts | – | |
| RPatrick McAuley | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 1.2 pts | – |
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André Carson, a Democrat who has represented Indiana's 7th congressional district since 2008 and is the dean of the state's congressional delegation, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican Patrick McAuley.
Patrick McAuley, a Republican real estate associate, is his party's 2026 nominee for Indiana's 7th congressional district, where he faces Democratic incumbent André Carson in the general election.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Indiana's 7th District margin of victory
| Carson, 34+ pts | 95.5% | |
| Carson, 37+ pts | 87.4% | |
| Carson, 40+ pts | 76.0% | |
| Carson, 43+ pts | 66.0% | |
| Carson, 46+ pts | 60.5% | |
| Carson, 49+ pts | 44.5% | |
| Carson, 52+ pts | 33.0% | |
| Carson, 55+ pts | 21.5% | |
| Carson, 58+ pts | 10.8% |
IN-07 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 0.1% | |
| Democrat 0-20% | 0.1% implied | |
| Democrat 20-30% | 7.6% | |
| Democrat 30-35% | 6.3% | |
| Democrat 35-40% | 6.5% | |
| Democrat 40-45% | 25.0% | |
| Democrat 45-50% | 25.0% | |
| Democrat 50-55% | 23.0% | |
| Democrat 55-60% | 9.7% | |
| Democrat 60%+ | 2.8% |
Prices which party wins.
André Carson: Counted · bid 95.9% / ask 98.9% · $712 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
André Carson: Counted · bid 96.4% / ask 98.0% · $4.4K within 5 pts
Contract shown: André Carson
If the House member sworn in for IN-07 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
