House · 3 November 2026

IN-08 House 2026

95.3% RMark Messmer leads TruthIndex™Safe R

Polymarket: 96.0%
Kalshi: 95.2%
Spread: 1.0 pts
24h: –
7 days: 0.0
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Mark Messmer, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RMark Messmer	95.3%		96.0%	95.2%	0.8 pts	–
DMary Allen	4.1%		3.5%	4.5%	1.0 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

Share this race

Embed the live card

The card updates on your page every 5 minutes and links back to this race. Paste the code into an HTML or embed block; it fits any width up to 680 pixels.

<iframe src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/in-08/embed.html" title="IN-08 House: live odds from Nijinn" style="width:100%;max-width:680px;height:400px;border:0" loading="lazy" scrolling="no"></iframe>
<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/in-08/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-in-08">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

Where frames are not allowed, the image card, linked to this race, updates with each refresh:

<a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/in-08/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-image&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-in-08"><img src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/in-08/card-landscape.png" alt="IN-08 House: odds from Nijinn" width="600" height="315" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border:0"></a>

Candidates & Background

Mark Messmer

Republican U.S. Representative for Indiana's 8th congressional district (since 2025)

Mark Messmer, a Republican who has represented Indiana's 8th congressional district since 2025 and previously served in the Indiana House of Representatives and Indiana Senate, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Mary Allen, an Evansville city councilor.

Full candidate profile →

Mary Allen

Democratic At-large member of the Evansville City Council (since 2023)

Mary Allen, a Democrat who has served as an at-large Evansville city councilor since 2023, is her party's 2026 nominee for Indiana's 8th congressional district against Republican incumbent Mark Messmer.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi117 contracts

Indiana's 8th District margin of victory

Messmer, 17+ pts		92.0%
Messmer, 20+ pts		81.5%
Messmer, 23+ pts		70.5%
Messmer, 26+ pts		59.5%
Messmer, 29+ pts		49.5%
Messmer, 32+ pts		38.5%
Messmer, 35+ pts		27.0%
Messmer, 38+ pts		18.5%
Messmer, 41+ pts		8.9%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$10.3K traded

IN-08 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins		–
Republican 0-5%		1.0%
Republican 5-15%		2.3%
Republican 15-20%		11.5%
Republican 20-25%		20.0%
Republican 25-30%		22.0%
Republican 30-35%		27.5%
Republican 35-40%		1.1%
Republican 40-45%		–
Republican 45%+		5.0%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$42.8K traded

Prices which party wins.

Mark Messmer: Counted · bid 95.3% / ask 96.6% · $281 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi6.8K contracts traded