nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

IN-04 House 2026

94.4% RJim Baird leads TruthIndex™Safe R
Polymarket
94.5%
Kalshi
94.3%
Spread
0.2 pts
24h
–
7 days
−0.1
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for IN-04 House.

  1. ANCA endorses congressional allies for 2026 midterm elections

    Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA-42) – B [...] Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) – A

    armenianweekly.comMiller-MeeksMcBathCorreaMcClainSánchezLeeFriedmanMfumeRivetMullinCalvertMorrisonCammackChuHarderOlszewskiRutherfordMoolenaarGaramendiCastroPatronisPanettaMcGovernBairdShreveHurdObernolte
  2. US Bill Proposes Agricultural and Mining Partnership with Sudan

    Introduced on October 13 by Rep. Jim Baird of Indiana, the proposal highlights US interest in Sudan’s natural wealth, particularly minerals used in modern industries.

    english.aawsat.comBaird
  3. Kansas Libertarian Drew Cranmer criticizes Iran war, tariffs and rising costs ahead of midterms: 'President overstepped his bounds'

    The Hindustan Times interview profiles Drew Cranmer, the Libertarian candidate for Kansas’s 4th Congressional District (IN-04), ahead of the 2026 midterms.

    Hindustan TimesCox
  4. Three battle to serve Fourth District in Congress - Urbana Daily Citizen

    The district includes all of Allen, Auglaize, Champaign, Hardin, Logan, Marion, Morrow, Shelby and Union counties and parts of Delaware and Richland counties.

    urbanacitizen.comJordanKolasinskiHerreraCoxLanciaPusczek
  5. Here are the farmers and ranchers in Congress

    Farmers who decide to run will also have the job of educating their fellow members of Congress, Newhouse said.

    capitalpress.comGaramendiBairdRischSmithGallagherLucasBaslerCooverBentzPingreeMillerWestermanBabin
More coverage 3
  1. United States Congressman Baird Introduces Bill to Establish U.S.-Sudan Natural Resources Partnership to Protect Civilians in Region

    Reach millions of readers across Africa: join our Corporate Media Hub

    africaupdates.comBaird
  2. Who is running for the U.S. House in the Chicago area during the 2026 midterm elections? - CBS Chicago

    The page appears to discuss who is running for the U.S. House in the Chicago area for the 2026 midterms, including information on candidates and elections in various districts.

    CBS NewsCastilloUnderwoodFordEstiFortierJacksonEllesonDavisMarterDecioFordCoxMillerHannonRamirezLaHoodBissMaxwellGegenMeyerRegnitzChai
  3. Southwest Michigan congressional seat emerges as key battleground in fight for U.S. House

    Topic: Michigan’s 4th Congressional District (SW Michigan) race, with incumbent Rep. Bill Huizenga facing challenger Fritz McCann as a key battleground for control of the U.S. House.

    WZZMCoxMcKinneyVukasovichHuizenga

Jim Baird, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RJim Baird 94.4% 94.5% 94.3% 0.1 pts –
DDrew Cox 5.0% 5.0% 4.8% 0.2 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Drew Cox

Democratic

Drew Cox, a Democrat, veteran and instructor at Purdue University, is the Democratic nominee for Indiana's 4th congressional district in 2026, challenging Republican incumbent Jim Baird in the general election.

Jim Baird

Jim Baird

Republican U.S. Representative for Indiana's 4th congressional district (since 2019)

Jim Baird, a Republican Vietnam War veteran and businessman who has represented Indiana's 4th congressional district since 2019, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Drew Cox, a veteran and Purdue University instructor.

Born 1945 · Parke County, Indiana

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi1.7K contracts

Indiana's 4th District margin of victory

Baird, 13+ pts
92.7%
Baird, 16+ pts
83.5%
Baird, 19+ pts
73.5%
Baird, 22+ pts
59.5%
Baird, 25+ pts
43.5%
Baird, 28+ pts
29.5%
Baird, 31+ pts
17.5%
Baird, 34+ pts
7.9%
Baird, 37+ pts
4.0%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$19.6K traded

IN-04 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins
1.6%
Republican 0-10%
1.8%
Republican 10-15%
4.3%
Republican 15-20%
18.4%
Republican 20-25%
31.9%
Republican 25-30%
19.5%
Republican 30-35%
19.5%
Republican 35-40%
–
Republican 40%+
0.6%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$42.1K traded

Prices which party wins.

Jim Baird: Counted · bid 94.0% / ask 95.0% · $918 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi7.5K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Jim Baird: Counted · bid 93.6% / ask 95.1% · $1.4K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Jim Baird

If the House member sworn in for IN-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

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