House · 3 November 2026

IN-03 House 2026

95.7% RMarlin Stutzman leads TruthIndex™Safe R

Polymarket: 95.0%
Kalshi: 96.4%
Spread: 1.7 pts
24h: –
7 days: +0.1
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for IN-03 House.

1 story this week

Top story

Thompson makes her pitch

Kelly Thompson is a Democratic candidate for Indiana’s 3rd Congressional District who attended a town hall in Jay County.

Winchester News-Gazette13h agoThompson

Marlin Stutzman, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RMarlin Stutzman	95.7%		95.0%	96.4%	1.4 pts	–
DKelly Thompson	4.5%		4.5%	2.8%	1.7 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Kelly Thompson

Democratic

Kelly Thompson, a Democrat and nonprofit founder, is the Democratic nominee for Indiana's 3rd congressional district in 2026, challenging Republican incumbent Marlin Stutzman in the November 3 general election.

Full candidate profile →

Marlin Stutzman

Republican U.S. Representative for Indiana's 3rd congressional district (since 2025)

Marlin Stutzman, a Republican farmer who has represented Indiana's 3rd congressional district since 2025 and earlier from 2010 to 2017, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Kelly Thompson, a nonprofit founder.

Born 1976 · Sturgis, Michigan

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi1.9K contracts

Indiana's 3rd District margin of victory

Stutzman, 14+ pts		82.5%
Stutzman, 17+ pts		70.5%
Stutzman, 20+ pts		56.5%
Stutzman, 23+ pts		41.5%
Stutzman, 26+ pts		27.5%
Stutzman, 29+ pts		16.5%
Stutzman, 32+ pts		8.9%
Stutzman, 35+ pts		4.2%
Stutzman, 38+ pts		5.7% implied

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$6.9K traded

IN-03 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins		4.7%
Republican 0-10%		1.3%
Republican 10-15%		–
Republican 15-20%		21.5%
Republican 20-25%		33.5%
Republican 25-30%		24.5%
Republican 30-35%		–
Republican 35-40%		2.8%
Republican 40%+		3.5%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$42.0K traded

Prices which party wins.

Marlin Stutzman: Counted · bid 94.7% / ask 95.2% · $543 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi1.2K contracts traded