US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for IN-05 House.
The page reports that Greg Goode won the GOP caucus to replace Senator Jon Ford, who filled a vacancy in Indiana State Senate District 38. It includes a photo caption from the Oct.
FordThe Indiana Capital Chronicle reports that Indiana Democrats are leveraging broad opposition to large data-center projects to try to gain seats in the Indiana House.
The provided page is a State Affairs Pro article titled “The Redistricting Wars, ranked,” dated Oct 28, 2025, and mentions redistricting battles across states (CA, IL, IN, plus six others).
The page appears to discuss who is running for the U.S. House in the Chicago area for the 2026 midterms, including information on candidates and elections in various districts.
The piece analyzes 22 House districts moving in Democrats’ favor, though IN-05 (Jim) Spartz seat is listed as Solid R → Likely R, indicating minimal impact for a Democrat pickup there.
FordNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RVictoria Spartz | 81.7% | 80.5% | 82.0% | 1.5 pts | – | |
| DJ. D. Ford | 18.6% | 19.0% | 18.5% | 0.5 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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J. D. Ford, a Democrat who has represented the 29th district in the Indiana Senate since 2018, is his party's nominee for Indiana's 5th congressional district in 2026 against Republican incumbent Victoria Spartz.
Victoria Spartz, a Ukrainian-born Republican who has represented Indiana's 5th congressional district since 2021, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat J. D. Ford, a member of the Indiana Senate.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Indiana's 5th District margin of victory
| Spartz, 1+ pts | 78.5% | |
| Spartz, 4+ pts | 67.0% | |
| Spartz, 7+ pts | 52.0% | |
| Spartz, 10+ pts | 37.5% | |
| Spartz, 13+ pts | 24.5% | |
| Spartz, 16+ pts | 14.0% | |
| Spartz, 19+ pts | 7.0% | |
| Spartz, 22+ pts | 4.2% | |
| Spartz, 25+ pts | 4.9% |
IN-05 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican 21%+ | 4.4% | |
| Republican 18-21% | 3.8% | |
| Republican 15-18% | 5.0% | |
| Republican 12-15% | 21.5% | |
| Republican 9-12% | 17.5% | |
| Republican 6-9% | – | |
| Republican 3-6% | 13.5% | |
| Republican 0-3% | 8.2% | |
| Democrat 0-3% | 13.3% | |
| Democrat 3%+ | 4.5% |
Prices which party wins.
Victoria Spartz: Counted · bid 80.0% / ask 81.0% · $8.7K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Victoria Spartz: Counted · bid 81.0% / ask 83.0% · $31.1K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Victoria Spartz
If the House member sworn in for IN-05 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
