nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

IN-06 House 2026

96.4% RJefferson Shreve leads TruthIndex™Safe R
Polymarket
95.8%
Kalshi
97.0%
Spread
2.2 pts
24h
–
7 days
0.0
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for IN-06 House.

  1. ANCA endorses congressional allies for 2026 midterm elections

    Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA-42) – B [...] Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) – A

    armenianweekly.comMiller-MeeksMcBathCorreaMcClainSánchezLeeFriedmanMfumeRivetMullinCalvertMorrisonCammackChuHarderOlszewskiRutherfordMoolenaarGaramendiCastroPatronisPanettaMcGovernBairdShreveHurdObernolte
  2. Indiana Democrats pick Wendy Dant Chesser to replace Rep. Rita Fleming

    Wendy Dant Chesser won the Democratic Party caucus on May 29, 2024, to replace Rep. Rita Fleming in Indiana.

    pro.stateaffairs.comWirth
  3. Who's donating to Bayh and Engling in pricy secretary of state race?

    Engling also raised a little over $2 million this quarter, though $1 million of that haul came from the Indiana GOP for an ad buy.

    Indianapolis StarShreve
  4. Could this be the year Democrats close the 'governor gap' with Republicans?

    Cook also recently moved three states from "solid Republican" to "likely Republican," reflecting movement toward the Democratic candidate. They are Nebraska (Republican Gov. Jim Pillen vs. Democratic former state Sen.

    Yahoo NewsAyotteKreiss-TomkinsWilsonWirth
  5. Indiana congressman Shreve pushes for national study of preapproved home plans

    A two-story home is under construction on Jubilee Lane in a new build subdivision by D.R. Horton on the northeast side of Franklin on Saturday.

    Franklin Daily JournalShreve
More coverage 2
  1. 6th District in Congress | House

    The page appears to be a Frederick News-Post profile or piece about the 6th Congressional District, featuring Robin Ficker as a candidate.

    Frederick News-PostMintonWirthPurves
  2. The Political Beat Candidate Guide: U.S. House of Representatives District 6

    The Political Beat Candidate Guide covers U.S. House District 6, which includes Rowan and Cabarrus counties.

    WSOCWirthMcDowell

Jefferson Shreve, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RJefferson Shreve 96.4% 95.8% 97.0% 1.2 pts –
DCinde Wirth 3.8% 4.3% 2.1% 2.2 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Cinde Wirth

Democratic

Cinde Wirth, an anthropologist and the Democratic nominee for Indiana's 6th congressional district in 2022 and 2024, is again her party's nominee in 2026, facing Republican incumbent Jefferson Shreve.

Jefferson Shreve

Jefferson Shreve

Republican U.S. Representative for Indiana's 6th congressional district (since 2025)

Jefferson Shreve, a Republican businessman who has represented Indiana's 6th congressional district since 2025, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Cinde Wirth, an anthropologist and the party's nominee in 2022 and 2024.

Born 1965 · Indianapolis, Indiana

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi410 contracts

Indiana's 6th District margin of victory

Shreve, 16+ pts
87.1%
Shreve, 19+ pts
76.5%
Shreve, 22+ pts
62.5%
Shreve, 25+ pts
47.5%
Shreve, 28+ pts
31.5%
Shreve, 31+ pts
19.5%
Shreve, 34+ pts
9.7%
Shreve, 37+ pts
4.4%
Shreve, 40+ pts
5.9%
implied
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$15.4K traded

IN-06 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins
3.6%
Republican 0-5%
5.5%
Republican 5-15%
–
Republican 15-20%
29.0%
Republican 20-25%
29.5%
Republican 25-30%
22.0%
Republican 30-35%
10.0%
Republican 35-40%
4.3%
Republican 40-45%
5.6%
Republican 45%+
2.4%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$37.8K traded

Prices which party wins.

Jefferson Shreve: Counted · bid 94.6% / ask 97.0% · $472 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi2.4K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Jefferson Shreve: Counted · bid 96.1% / ask 97.9% · $519 within 5 pts

Contract shown: Jefferson Shreve

If the House member sworn in for IN-06 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Indiana

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  4. IN-04 HouseR94%
  5. IN-05 HouseR82%
  6. IN-07 HouseD97%
  7. IN-08 HouseR95%
  8. IN-09 HouseR97%