US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for NY-08 House.
CHARMANT USA Inc. is partnering with Isaac Mizrahi New York to support the Breast Cancer Research Foundation (BCRF) during October 2026.
The Politico live updates piece, “Capitol agenda: What the House's new leftists learned from the Squad,” examines how newly elected left-leaning members in the House (often dubbed the “new leftists”) are adapting…
The article spotlights Rep. Mike Lawler, a vulnerable Republican representing New York’s suburban Hudson Valley seat (NY-08), who is running on an immigration-focused platform.
The article reports on campaign fundraising in New York’s key House battlegrounds, noting that most Democratic challengers outraised their Republican incumbents last quarter.
Rep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C
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BentzKurdianThe article highlights a fiery on-air debate in New York’s swing district (NY-08) between Rep. Mike Lawler (R) and Democrat Cait Conley.
The article outlines House Democrats’ 100-day agenda if they regain the majority, led by Hakeem Jeffries (NY-08).
The article reports on the unveiling of nearly 400 new affordable housing units in East New York. It includes a quote from Rep.
JeffriesThe page features video, audio, photos, and a rush transcript from an event where Governor Kathy Hochul and Mayor (likely) celebrate affordable housing milestones in East New York.
A NYC-focused piece reports on a ribbon-cutting event in Canarsie, Brooklyn, highlighting New York Democratic leaders: including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Mayor Zohran Mamdani, and Governor Kathy…
JeffriesNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHakeem Jeffries | 97.8% | 97.8% | 97.8% | 0.1 pts | – | |
| RLewis Mizrahi | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.1 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Hakeem Jeffries, a Democrat who has represented New York's 8th congressional district since 2013 and has served as House minority leader since 2023, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican Lewis Mizrahi, a data analyst.
Lewis Mizrahi, a data analyst, is the Republican nominee for New York's 8th congressional district in 2026, challenging Democratic incumbent Hakeem Jeffries, the House minority leader.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
New York's 8th District margin of victory
| Jeffries, 42+ pts | 95.7% | |
| Jeffries, 45+ pts | 90.5% | |
| Jeffries, 48+ pts | 80.5% | |
| Jeffries, 51+ pts | 66.0% | |
| Jeffries, 54+ pts | 48.0% | |
| Jeffries, 57+ pts | 29.5% | |
| Jeffries, 60+ pts | 17.5% | |
| Jeffries, 63+ pts | 5.2% | |
| Jeffries, 66+ pts | 5.5% implied |
NY-08 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 0.1% | |
| Democrat 0-30% | 4.3% | |
| Democrat 30-40% | 5.7% | |
| Democrat 40-45% | 4.6% | |
| Democrat 45-50% | 12.8% | |
| Democrat 50-55% | 17.3% | |
| Democrat 55-60% | 29.0% | |
| Democrat 60-65% | 22.0% | |
| Democrat 65-70% | 4.0% | |
| Democrat 70%+ | 0.9% |
Prices which party wins.
Hakeem Jeffries: Counted · bid 96.2% / ask 99.5% · $1.6K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Hakeem Jeffries: Counted · bid 96.5% / ask 99.0% · $2.2K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Hakeem Jeffries
If the House member sworn in for NY-08 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
