nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

NY-10 House 2026

98.1% DBrad Lander leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
97.8%
Kalshi
98.4%
Spread
0.6 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.5
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for NY-10 House.

  1. ‘Completely false’: Mamdani, socialist ally Avila Chevalier shrug off reported rift over NYPD’s Tisch

    The article covers comments by Mamdani (Zohran Mamdani) and NY-13 congressional candidate Avila Chevalier (Darializa Avila Chevalier), clarifying a reported rift over Tisch (likely referring to NYC official Tisch).

    AM New YorkWilliamsChevalierValdezLander
  2. Facing Desperation to Find Nourishment, Arid Kenyans Rely on the Gingerbread Tree

    The article, authored by Jennifer Moore and published October 16, 2026, examines the severe nourishment crisis among arid-region Kenyans who depend on a local resource referred to as the “Gingerbread Tree.” It…

    cratepeak.usMoore
  3. NYC comptroller says city's relationship with Israel 'deeply important' after ditching Israel bonds

    The NYC comptroller says the city’s relationship with Israel remains “deeply important” after the city stopped purchasing Israel bonds.

    Times of IsraelLander
  4. NYC Comptroller breaks campaign promise to Jewish voters to buy Israel Bonds, drawing praise from Mamdani

    Brad Lander, NYC Comptroller, invoked a shift away from investing city pension funds in foreign government debt, specifically Israel Bonds, as he ended the city’s 50-year practice of holding $39 million in Israeli…

    jewishwebsite.comLander
  5. ‘Indefensible,’ Jewish leaders say of NYC comptroller opting to abort city’s Israel Bonds investments - Israel & Jewish News

    The article from JNS discusses New York City Comptroller candidates and statements involving Brad Lander.

    Jewish News SyndicateLander
More coverage 1
  1. US midterms could reshape Israel ties ahead of 2028 elections

    Brad Lander, a Jewish American Democrat running for New York’s 10th Congressional District, has taken a firm stance against further U.S.

    The Jerusalem PostLander

Brad Lander, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DBrad Lander 98.1% 97.8% 98.4% 0.6 pts –
RJennifer Moore 0.6%
Kalshi only
 – 0.6% – –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Brad Lander

Brad Lander

Democratic

Brad Lander, a Democrat who served as New York City comptroller from 2022 to 2025, is his party's nominee for New York's 10th congressional district in 2026 against Republican Jennifer Moore after defeating Representative Dan Goldman in the primary.

Born 1969

Jennifer Moore

Republican

Jennifer Moore, an activist, is the Republican nominee for New York's 10th congressional district in 2026, facing Democrat Brad Lander, a former New York City comptroller who defeated incumbent Dan Goldman in the primary.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi1.2K contracts

New York's 10th District margin of victory

Lander, 57+ pts
92.2%
Lander, 60+ pts
82.0%
Lander, 63+ pts
68.5%
Lander, 66+ pts
48.5%
Lander, 69+ pts
26.5%
Lander, 72+ pts
10.9%
Lander, 75+ pts
7.4%
Lander, 78+ pts
5.1%
implied
Lander, 81+ pts
4.5%
implied
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$12.0K traded

NY-10 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins
0.3%
Democrat 0-45%
2.0%
Democrat 45-55%
0.8%
Democrat 55-60%
0.7%
Democrat 60-65%
–
Democrat 65-70%
23.0%
Democrat 70-75%
23.5%
Democrat 75-80%
–
Democrat 80-85%
4.7%
Democrat 85%+
3.0%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$54.9K traded

Prices which party wins.

Brad Lander: Counted · bid 97.5% / ask 98.2% · $2.0K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi18.9K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Brad Lander: Counted · bid 97.2% / ask 99.7% · $1.2K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Brad Lander

If the House member sworn in for NY-10 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in New York

  1. New York GovernorD95%
  2. NY-01 HouseR86%
  3. NY-02 HouseR86%
  4. NY-03 HouseD91%
  5. NY-04 HouseD92%
  6. NY-05 HouseD98%
  7. NY-06 HouseD98%
  8. NY-07 HouseD97%