House · 3 November 2026

NY-15 House 2026

97.9% DRitchie Torres leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 97.8%
Kalshi: 97.9%
Spread: 0.3 pts
24h: –
7 days: +0.1
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Ritchie Torres, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DRitchie Torres	97.9%		97.8%	97.9%	0.1 pts	–
RStylo Sapaskis	1.8%		1.7%	2.0%	0.3 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Ritchie Torres

Democratic U.S. Representative for New York's 15th congressional district (since 2021)

Ritchie Torres, a Democrat who has represented New York's 15th congressional district since 2021 after serving on the New York City Council, faces Republican Stylo Sapaskis in his 2026 re-election race.

Born 1988 · The Bronx, New York

Full candidate profile →

Stylo Sapaskis

Republican

Stylo Sapaskis is the Republican nominee for New York's 15th congressional district in 2026, challenging Democratic incumbent Ritchie Torres, who was first elected to the West Bronx seat in 2020.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi3.2K contracts

New York's 15th District margin of victory

Torres, 49+ pts		96.3%
Torres, 52+ pts		96.0%
Torres, 55+ pts		93.0%
Torres, 58+ pts		82.5%
Torres, 61+ pts		64.5%
Torres, 64+ pts		42.5%
Torres, 67+ pts		20.5%
Torres, 70+ pts		6.8%
Torres, 73+ pts		5.8% implied

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$12.0K traded

NY-15 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins		0.3%
Democrat 0-35%		1.6%
Democrat 35-45%		3.0%
Democrat 45-50%		0.8%
Democrat 50-55%		1.3%
Democrat 55-60%		18.0%
Democrat 60-65%		28.5%
Democrat 65-70%		28.5%
Democrat 70-75%		9.0%
Democrat 75%+		9.5%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$49.0K traded

Prices which party wins.

Ritchie Torres: Counted · bid 97.5% / ask 98.2% · $65 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi2.0K contracts traded